章扬熙. 半对数线图在流行病学研究中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(2): 182-183. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.02.021
引用本文: 章扬熙. 半对数线图在流行病学研究中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(2): 182-183. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.02.021
Yangxi Zhang. Application of semi-logarithmic line graph in epidemiological research[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(2): 182-183. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.02.021
Citation: Yangxi Zhang. Application of semi-logarithmic line graph in epidemiological research[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(2): 182-183. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.02.021

半对数线图在流行病学研究中的应用

Application of semi-logarithmic line graph in epidemiological research

  • 摘要: 介绍半对数线图的结构和用途,并应用该方法研究我国新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的时间分布及其流行速度变化。通过对2020年1月下旬COVID-19确诊患者和疑似患者时间分布的分析发现,COVID-19患者的传播速度在明显下降,半对数线逐渐走平,日环比值(DLR)已经趋近于1,目前防控措施很有效。如果春节返程的人口流动期间防控得当,疫情有望逐渐下降。半对数线图是研究疫情消长规律的重要工具。

     

    Abstract: This paper introduces the structure and application of semi-logarithmic line chart, and studies the time distribution of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in China by using semi-logarithmic line chart, and analyzes the change of epidemic speed of COVID-19. According to the analysis of the time distribution of COVID-19 patients in the late January 2020, the transmission speed of the COVID-19 patients was obviously decreased, the semi-logarithmic line was gradually flattened, and the daily link ratio (DLR) was close to one. Prevention and control measures are very effective. If the prevention and control during the return period of the Spring festival is proper, the epidemic is expected to gradually decline. The semi-logarithmic line graph is an important tool to study the law of epidemic fluctuation.

     

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