杨昕娉, 庞明樊, 梁作如, 董小平, 吕柯, 施国庆, 施小明, 席晶晶, 冯录召, 戚晓鹏, 李新华. 我国陆地接壤国家新冠病毒病疫情及输入风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(4): 283-287. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.04.004
引用本文: 杨昕娉, 庞明樊, 梁作如, 董小平, 吕柯, 施国庆, 施小明, 席晶晶, 冯录召, 戚晓鹏, 李新华. 我国陆地接壤国家新冠病毒病疫情及输入风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(4): 283-287. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.04.004
Xinping Yang, Mingfan Pang, Zuoru Liang, Xiaoping Dong, Ke Lyu, Guoqing Shi, Xiaoming Shi, Jingjing Xi, Luzhao Feng, Xiaopeng Qi, Xinhua Li. Assessment for the COVID-19 outbreak situation and importation risk of the 14 land-bordering countries of China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(4): 283-287. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.04.004
Citation: Xinping Yang, Mingfan Pang, Zuoru Liang, Xiaoping Dong, Ke Lyu, Guoqing Shi, Xiaoming Shi, Jingjing Xi, Luzhao Feng, Xiaopeng Qi, Xinhua Li. Assessment for the COVID-19 outbreak situation and importation risk of the 14 land-bordering countries of China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(4): 283-287. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.04.004

我国陆地接壤国家新冠病毒病疫情及输入风险评估

Assessment for the COVID-19 outbreak situation and importation risk of the 14 land-bordering countries of China

  • 摘要:
    目的对与我国陆地接壤的14个国家进行综合分析,评估其新冠病毒病疫情及输入风险,为进一步做好防输入工作提供依据。
    方法通过搜集各国政府网站、主流媒体、相关专业门户网站的公开信息、正式发表的参考文献,运用传染病SEIR(易感者–暴露者–感染者–移出者)数学模型和牛津大学发布的“防控措施严格性指数”,对接壤国家的新冠病毒病发病和检测、华人华侨、人口和卫生资源、防控措施进行梳理和分析。
    结果总体上,我国陆地接壤国家人群检测比例偏低,可能存在大量病例未被诊断和报告的情况。 俄罗斯目前病例最多,防控措施严格性指数不高,老龄人口比例高,未来潜在的重症医疗需求大。 印度和巴基斯坦的病例数量仅次于俄罗斯,其人口基数大且医护人员数量少,未来可能面临医疗资源紧缺的情况。
    结论陆地接壤国家对我国输入风险增高,陆路口岸城市需持续关注。 建议尽快开展口岸城市输入风险应对的能力梳理和预案制定,建立和加强入境健康筛查和患者转运机制。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo analyze the COVID-19 epidemics in 14 land-bordering countries of China, evaluate the risk of imported cases to China, and provide evidence for the further prevention of imported COVID-19.
    MethodsThe public information about COVID-19 epidemics in these countries were collected from their government websites, mainstream media, relevant professional portals and officially published literature, and the SEIR mathematic modeling of infectious diseases and the COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index published by the University of Oxford were used for an analysis on the incidences of COVID-19 and tests of 2019-nCoV, the numbers of overseas Chinese, the population and health resources, and control measures in these countries.
    ResultsGenerally, the testing coverage rates of 2019-nCoV in these land-bordering countries are low, and there might be a large number of undiagnosed and unreported cases. At present, Russia has the highest case number, with a relatively low COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index, as well as a high proportion of elderly population, so there might be a great potential demand for intensive care in the future. India and Pakistan, which have a large population and fewer healthcare workers, are second only to Russia in the number of cases, and might face a shortage of medical resources in the future.
    ConclusionThe risk of imported COVID-19 to China from the 14 bordering countries is considered to be high. Therefore, continuous attention is needed for all the land port cities. It is suggested that the capacities of port cities to deal with the imported COVID-19 cases should be evaluated in time, and the preparedness plan for the port city response to imported COVID-19 cases should be formulated as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the mechanism of entry health screening and patient transferring should be established and strengthened.

     

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