蒋琦, 陶沁, 吴军, 陈静, 黄震宇, 申筑, 岳加林. 贵州省传染病疫情预警与应用实践[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(7): 633-636. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.07.017
引用本文: 蒋琦, 陶沁, 吴军, 陈静, 黄震宇, 申筑, 岳加林. 贵州省传染病疫情预警与应用实践[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(7): 633-636. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.07.017
Qi Jiang, Qin Tao, Jun Wu, Jing Chen, Zhenyu Huang, Zhu Shen, Jialin Yue. Establishment and application of early warning of infectious disease in Guizhou[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(7): 633-636. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.07.017
Citation: Qi Jiang, Qin Tao, Jun Wu, Jing Chen, Zhenyu Huang, Zhu Shen, Jialin Yue. Establishment and application of early warning of infectious disease in Guizhou[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(7): 633-636. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.07.017

贵州省传染病疫情预警与应用实践

Establishment and application of early warning of infectious disease in Guizhou

  • 摘要:
    目的通过传染病早期预警及时发现传染病聚集性疫情,使其得到及时有效处置。
    方法2006 — 2016年,用VB+VC 语言编写传染病聚集性疫情筛查辅助软件,参照贵州省传染病流行规律和流行特征制定的各种传染病预警阈值,建立以乡镇、集体单位为层级的传染病聚集性病例预警模式;2017 — 2019年,建立省级传染病大数据中心,搭建“贵州省传染病监测数据分析和辅助决策系统”,基于人工智能技术,通过机器自主学习历史上所有的传染病个案数据,建立智能化的传染病监测预警模式。
    结果贵州省传染病监测数据分析和辅助决策系统较VB+VC 语言编写传染病聚集性疫情筛查辅助软件更易及时发现医疗机构报告病例异常增多和传染病聚集性疫情,实现了对各级疾控机构全程监管预警信息的处置,聚集性疫情发展得到有效控制,预警及时响应率由61.17%提高到97.59%,预警及时处置率由63.67%提高到98.51%,暴发疫情和突发公共卫生事件报告数由343起降低到83起。
    结论大数据分析和人工智能技术在传染病监测系统中的应用,可大大提高传染病监测准确性和敏感性,充分发挥传染病早期预警的作用,降低传染病暴发的风险。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo detect the epidemic of infectious disease in time through early warning of infectious diseases and make rapid response to it.
    MethodsDuring 2006–2016, VB+ VC language was used to compile the auxiliary software for disease cluster screening, Early warning thresholds of different infectious diseases were set and the early warning model of infectious disease cluster at township and collective unit level was established based on the epidemiologic characteristics of infectious diseases in Guizhou province. Since 2017, the provincial infectious diseases big data center and the “Infectious disease surveillance data analysis and auxiliary decision-making system in Guizhou province” have been established. Based on artificial intelligence technology, autonomous learning of all cases of infectious diseases in history through machine, an automatic and intelligent early warning model for infectious disease surveillance was established.
    ResultsCompared with the screening support software compiled with VB+VC language, the infectious disease surveillance data analysis and auxiliary decision-making system in Guizhou was more effective in the detection of abnormal increase of disease reporting and the clusters of infectious diseases in medical institutions in time. It realized the whole process of early warning information response of CDCs at all levels. The development of disease cluster could be effectively controlled. The timely response rate of early warning increased from 61.17% to 97.59%. The timely disposal rate increased from 63.67% to 98.51%. The number of reported outbreaks and public health emergencies decreased from 343 to 83.
    ConclusionThe application of big data analysis and artificial intelligence technology in infectious disease surveillance system can greatly improve the accuracy and sensitivity of infectious disease surveillance, which play an important role in the early warning of infectious diseases and reduction of the risk of infectious disease outbreak.

     

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