丁哲渊, 吴昊澄, 吴晨, 鲁琴宝, 林君芬. 浙江省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情应急响应期间其他法定传染病监测分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(8): 746-752. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.08.015
引用本文: 丁哲渊, 吴昊澄, 吴晨, 鲁琴宝, 林君芬. 浙江省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情应急响应期间其他法定传染病监测分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(8): 746-752. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.08.015
Zheyuan Ding, Haocheng Wu, Chen Wu, Qinbao Lu, Junfen Lin. Surveillance for notifiable communicable diseases in the context of emergency response to COVID-19 in Zhejiang[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(8): 746-752. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.08.015
Citation: Zheyuan Ding, Haocheng Wu, Chen Wu, Qinbao Lu, Junfen Lin. Surveillance for notifiable communicable diseases in the context of emergency response to COVID-19 in Zhejiang[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(8): 746-752. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.08.015

浙江省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情应急响应期间其他法定传染病监测分析

Surveillance for notifiable communicable diseases in the context of emergency response to COVID-19 in Zhejiang

  • 摘要:
    目的了解新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情应急响应期间,浙江省其他法定传染病的发病情况。
    方法采用描述流行病学对应急响应期间浙江省其他法定传染病进行分析,应用季节性自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)预测常见的几种呼吸道和肠道传染病常态下的疫情趋势,与应急响应期间的实际报告发病情况进行比较。
    结果浙江省重大突发公共卫生事件一级响应期间,乙类(除COVID-19外)、丙类传染病分别较2019年同期下降47.5%和67.7%,二级响应期间分别下降29.6%和95.0%。 绝大部分法定传染病报告发病数较2019年同期均下降,下降较多的病种有百日咳、猩红热、流行性感冒(流感)、其他感染性腹泻病和手足口病。 一级、二级响应期间,肺结核、流感、流行性腮腺炎、猩红热、手足口病和其他感染性腹泻病报告发病数比预期发病数分别下降约31.3%、48.9%、48.2%、75.0%、72.3%和66.0%。
    结论COVID-19应急响应期间浙江省其他法定传染病的发病数明显减少,特别是猩红热、流感、其他感染性腹泻病和手足口病等呼吸道、肠道传染病的发病数下降明显。 公共场所人流量控制、学校停课、提倡居民佩戴口罩出行等措施为部分传染病带来了较长久的抑制效果,可为今后常态下的传染病防控工作提供一定的借鉴。

     

    Abstract:
    ObjectiveTo understand epidemiological characteristics of notifiable communicable diseases in the context of emergency response to COVID-19 in Zhejiang province.
    MethodsDescriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on the incidence data of notifiable communicable diseases in the context of emergency response to COVID-19 in Zhejiang. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the incidence levels of common respiratory diseases and enteric infectious diseases in normal status in Zhejiang. The results were compared.
    ResultsCompared with the same period in 2019, the incidences of Class B and C communicable diseases decreased by 47.5% and 67.7% respectively in the context of the first level response to COVID-19 emergency and decreased by 29.6% and 95.0%, respectively in the context of the second level response to COVID-19 emergency in Zhejiang. The incidences of nearly all the communicable diseases decreased with the obvious declines in case numbers of scarlet fever, influenza, hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and other infectious diarrhea disease. Compared with the prediction results, the incidences of pulmonary tuberculosis, influenza, mumps, scarlet fever, HFMD and other infectious diarrhea diseases decreased by approximately 31.3%, 48.9%, 48.2%, 75.0%, 72.3% and 66.0%, respectively in the context of the first and second level responses to COVID-19 emergency.
    ConclusionIn the context of emergency response to COVID-19, the incidences of notifiable infectious diseases decreased obviously in Zhejiang, especially the incidences of scarlet fever, influenza, other infectious diarrhea and HFMD. Measures such as restricting people flow in public places, school closure and promoting mask wearing might have brought a long-term suppression effect to some communicable diseases, which provided certain reference for the future prevention and control of communicable diseases in normal status.

     

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