2015－2019年四川省雅安市主要慢性病早死概率及变化趋势

魏余琴; 王晓玉; 凌莉

doi:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.09.014

2015－2019年四川省雅安市主要慢性病早死概率及变化趋势

Probability and trend of premature death from major chronic diseases in Ya'an, Sichuan, 2015–2019

摘要

摘要:
目的分析2015 — 2019年四川省雅安市4类主要慢性病（心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病）的死亡率、早死概率及其变化趋势，为政府制订慢性病综合防治措施提供基础数据和决策依据。
方法死亡数据来源于中国疾病预防控制中心“人口死亡信息登记管理系统”中导出的死亡个案，人口资料来源于公安系统数据，标化人口采用四川省2010年人口普查数据。采用SPSS 19.0统计软件计算2015 — 2019年雅安市主要慢性病的粗死亡率，标化死亡率、构成比、早死概率，分析其变化趋势。趋势变化采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型进行判别。
结果2015 — 2019年雅安市4类主要慢性病粗死亡率由496.35/10万上升到535.30/10万，年度变化百分比（APC）为1.91%，变化趋势差异有统计学意义（P＝0.001），标化死亡率由372.48/10万上升到393.87/10万，APC为1.41%，变化趋势差异无统计学意义（P＝0.983）。 2015 — 2019年雅安市4类主要慢性病的过早死亡数占总死亡数的22.38%，早死概率从14.92%下降至14.58%，APC为−0.57%，变化趋势差异无统计学意义（P＝0.066）。
结论2015 — 2019年雅安市主要慢性病粗死亡率逐年上升，主要慢性病早死概率缓慢下降，但防控形势仍严峻。心脑血管疾病和肿瘤是导致居民过早死亡的主要慢性病，应优先对心脑血管疾病和肿瘤进行综合干预。

Abstract:
ObjectiveTo analyze the mortality, premature death probability and its changing trend of four major chronic diseases (cardiovascular disease, malignant tumor, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes) in Ya'an, Sichuan province, from 2015 to 2019, and provide basic data for the decision-making and the development of comprehensive chronic disease prevention and control strategies.
MethodsThe death data, population data and standardized population data in Ya'an from 2015 to 2019 were collected from national population death information register system, public security bureau information system and the population census in Sichuan (2010), respectively. Statistical software SPSS 19.0 was used to calculate the crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, death constituent ratio and premature death probability of the major chronic diseases in Ya'an from 2015 to 2019 and analyze their change trends.
ResultsFrom 2015 to 2019, the crude mortality rate of the four major chronic diseases increased from 496.35/100 000 to 535.30/100 000. The percentage of (annual percent change, APC) was 1.91%, the difference was significant (P＝0.001). The standardized mortality rate of the four major chronic diseases increased from 372.48/100 000 to 393.87/100 000, the APC was 1.41%, the difference was not significant (P＝0.983). From 2015 to 2019, the premature death of the four major chronic diseases accounted for 22.38% of the total deaths, the probability of premature death decreased from 14.92% to 14.58%, APC was –0.57%, the difference was not significant (P＝0.066).
ConclusionSince 2015, the crude death rate of the major chronic diseases has increased year by year in Ya'an, and the probability of premature death of the major chronic diseases has decreased slowly, but the situation of prevention and control is still challenging. Cardiovascular disease and malignant tumor are main causes of premature death in local residents. It is a priority to conduct the comprehensive intervention on the prevention and control of cardiovascular disease and malignant tumor.

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