陈嘉敏, 邱增钊, 钟舒怡, 文思敏, 舒跃龙. 基于系统综述的新型冠状病毒肺炎与2009年H1N1流感大流行基本传染数研究[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(12): 1088-1099. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.008
引用本文: 陈嘉敏, 邱增钊, 钟舒怡, 文思敏, 舒跃龙. 基于系统综述的新型冠状病毒肺炎与2009年H1N1流感大流行基本传染数研究[J]. 疾病监测, 2020, 35(12): 1088-1099. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.008
Chen Jiamin, Qiu Zengzhao, Zhong Shuyi, Wen Simin, Shu Yuelong. Study of R0 of COVID-19 and pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 based on systematic review[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(12): 1088-1099. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.008
Citation: Chen Jiamin, Qiu Zengzhao, Zhong Shuyi, Wen Simin, Shu Yuelong. Study of R0 of COVID-19 and pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 based on systematic review[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2020, 35(12): 1088-1099. DOI: 10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2020.12.008

基于系统综述的新型冠状病毒肺炎与2009年H1N1流感大流行基本传染数研究

Study of R0 of COVID-19 and pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 based on systematic review

  • 摘要:
      目的  通过系统综述方法,基于基本传染数(R0)比较新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)与2009年 H1N1流感大流行的传播能力。
      方法  通过检索中国知网、万方数据库、维普数据库、PubMed、Embase、Web of Science、BioRxiv和MedRxiv数据库,2名审查员对COVID-19和2009年H1N1流感大流行的R0相关研究进行独立筛选、提取数据和计算,并对提取的2次疫情的R0进行系统性总结和比较。
      结果  共纳入163篇文献(包括54篇2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行相关文章和109篇COVID-19相关文章)。 COVID-19在世界流行的R0中位数为2.860(四分位数范围IQR: 2.350~3.546),高于2009年H1N1流感大流行的R0中位数(1.508,IQR: 1.336~1.836)。 中国COVID-19的R0中位数为2.930(IQR: 2.215~3.453),施行严格交通管制前COVID-19的R0中位数为3.430(IQR: 2.500~4.710),高于之后的2.500(IQR: 1.673~3.030)。
      结论  COVID-19的传播能力强于2009年甲型H1N1流感。 中国采取严格交通管制措施后,能够减缓COVID-19的传播。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  The compare transmission efficiency of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 by a systematic review based on R0 calculation.
      Methods  We conducted a literature retrieval by using the databases of CNKI, WanFang Data, VIP, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, BioRxiv and MedRxiv for the research of COVID-19 and influenza A (H1N1) pdm09. Two reviewers independently screened the literatures, extracted and calculated related data and systematically compared the R0 of the two outbreaks.
      Results  A total of 163 papers were included 54 about influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 and 109 about COVID-19. The median R0 of COVID-19 2.860 (IQR: 2.350−3.546) was higher than that of influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 1.508 (IQR: 1.336−1.836) in the world. In China, the median R0 of COVID-19 was 2.930 (IQR: 2.215–3.453) and the median R0 of COVID-19 before implementing strict traffic control strategy in Wuhan 3.430 (IQR: 2.500−4.710) was higher than that after the strict strategy 2.500 (IQR: 1.673−3.030).
      Conclusion  The transmission efficiency of COVID-19 is stronger than influenza A (H1N1) pdm09. The spread of COVID-19 in China has been controlled owe to the strict traffic control strategy.

     

/

返回文章
返回