曾旻敏, 刘天, 田克卿, 江鸿, 蔺茂文, 姚梦雷, 黄继贵. 2020年湖北省荆州市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(2): 120-126. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202008100268
引用本文: 曾旻敏, 刘天, 田克卿, 江鸿, 蔺茂文, 姚梦雷, 黄继贵. 2020年湖北省荆州市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(2): 120-126. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202008100268
Zeng Minmin, Liu Tian, Tian Keqing, Jiang Hong, Lin Maowen, Yao Menglei, Huang Jigui. Epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus diseases 2019 in Jingzhou, Hubei, 2020[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(2): 120-126. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202008100268
Citation: Zeng Minmin, Liu Tian, Tian Keqing, Jiang Hong, Lin Maowen, Yao Menglei, Huang Jigui. Epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus diseases 2019 in Jingzhou, Hubei, 2020[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(2): 120-126. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202008100268

2020年湖北省荆州市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征分析

Epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus diseases 2019 in Jingzhou, Hubei, 2020

  • 摘要:
      目的  探讨湖北省荆州市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)确诊病例流行病学特征,为今后类似疫情防控提供科学依据。
      方法  通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2020年荆州市COVID-19病例资料,描述病例的流行病学特征。
      结果  2020年荆州市累计报告COVID-19病例1 550例,重症病例占22.71%(352/1 550),病死率为3.29%(51/1 550)。 49.61%(769/1 550)的病例报告发病前14 d内有明确武汉市居住史或旅行史。 首例病例在2020年1月1日发病,发病高峰为1月23 — 28日,末例病例发病时间为2月26日。 50~59岁年龄组病例占比最高(23.23%,360/1 550)。 92.91%(118/127)的乡镇(街道)有病例发病。 ≥60岁组病例的病死风险是<60岁组的10.53倍(95%CI:4.70~23.60),有既往疾病史病例的病死风险是无既往疾病史病例的1.95倍(95%CI:1.05~3.61)。 第一阶段(1月1 — 31日)的“发病至报告间隔”较第二阶段(2月1 — 26日)长(中位数分别为7.8、3.5 d,P<0.001)。
      结论  荆州市多数COVID-19病例有武汉市暴露史,重症病例占比不高,疫情波及全市大部分乡镇。 有基础性疾病、年老者病死率高。 防控中后期较前期应更好地将“早发现”的防控策略落到实处。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Jingzhou, Hubei, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of similar epidemic in future.
      Methods  We collected COVID-19 cases information reported in Jingzhou in 2020 from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and described the cases’ temporal-spatial distribution, population distribution and other epidemiological characteristics.
      Results  A total of 1 550 COVID-19 cases were reported in Jingzhou in 2020. The proportion of severe case was 22.71% (352/1 550) and the case fatality rate was 3.29% (51/1 550). Among these cases, 49.61% (769/1 550) cases reported clear sojourn history in Wuhan within 14 days before the onset. The first case was reported on January 1, 2020. The incidence peak occurred during January 23–28, 2020. The last case was reported on February 26, 2020. Most cases were in age group 50–59 years (23.23%, 360/1 550). The cases were distributed in 92.91% (118/127) of townships (streets). The risk of death in age group ≥60 years was 10.53 times than that in age group <60 years (95% CI: 4.70–23.60), and the risk of death in people with underlying medical conditions was 1.95 times (95% CI: 1.05–3.61) than that in previous healthy people. The interval from onset to report (median: 7.8 days) in the first stage from January 1 to January 31 was longer than that (median: 3.5 days) in the second stage from February 1 to February 26 (P<0.001).
      Conclusion  Most COVID-19 cases in Jingzhou had exposures in Wuhan. The proportion of severe cases was not high, and most townships were affected. The case fatality was high in people with underlying medical conditions and elderly persons. The prevention and control strategy of ‘early detection’ was better implemented in the second stage than in the first stage. People with multiple underlying diseases and the elderly were with a higher case fatality rate.

     

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