刘白薇, 王宇, 田祎, 王小莉, 严寒秋, 李伟红, 沈玲羽, 高志勇, 贾蕾, 王全意. 应用调整Serfling回归模型估计2012-2019年北京市肠道门诊超额腹泻病例数[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(4): 387-391. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202010220361
引用本文: 刘白薇, 王宇, 田祎, 王小莉, 严寒秋, 李伟红, 沈玲羽, 高志勇, 贾蕾, 王全意. 应用调整Serfling回归模型估计2012-2019年北京市肠道门诊超额腹泻病例数[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(4): 387-391. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202010220361
Liu Baiwei, Wang Yu, Tian Yi, Wang Xiaoli, Yan Hanqiu, Li Weihong, Shen Lingyu, Gao Zhiyong, Jia Lei, Wang Quanyi. Estimation of excess number of diarrhea cases in intestinal disease outpatients in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model, 2012−2019[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(4): 387-391. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202010220361
Citation: Liu Baiwei, Wang Yu, Tian Yi, Wang Xiaoli, Yan Hanqiu, Li Weihong, Shen Lingyu, Gao Zhiyong, Jia Lei, Wang Quanyi. Estimation of excess number of diarrhea cases in intestinal disease outpatients in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model, 2012−2019[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(4): 387-391. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202010220361

应用调整Serfling回归模型估计2012-2019年北京市肠道门诊超额腹泻病例数

Estimation of excess number of diarrhea cases in intestinal disease outpatients in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model, 2012−2019

  • 摘要:
      目的  估计北京市肠道门诊超额腹泻病例数,分析2012 — 2019年腹泻病例超额特点。
      方法  利用2012 — 2019年北京市16家全年开诊的肠道门诊腹泻初诊病例数,应用调整Serfling回归模型进行拟合,估计肠道门诊中腹泻病例的超额发病情况。
      结果  2012 — 2019年,北京市16家全年开诊的肠道门诊初诊病例共216 930例,大部分患者年龄≥18岁。 经过调整Serfling回归模型拟合后,共出现10个超额流行期,累计超额病例数为28 135例(95% CI:13 423~42 847),占同期拟合基线水平的比值为50.10%(95% CI:23.90%~76.29%)。 春、夏、秋、冬季的肠道门诊超额腹泻病例数分别为2 673例(95% CI:985~4 361)、11 564例(95% CI:6 296~16 833)、2 570例(95% CI:1 112~4 028)、11 328例(95% CI:5 030~17 626)。 2012 — 2019年北京市夏季超额腹泻病例数出现下降趋势(χ2=5 949.180,P<0.001),冬季超额腹泻病例数自2016年不断增加。
      结论  夏季是北京市肠道门诊腹泻病例就诊高峰,但近年来冬季超额腹泻病例数明显增加,应加强冬季病毒性腹泻监测,调整相应防控策略。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To estimate the excess number of diarrhea cases in intestinal disease outpatients in Beijing and analyze the characteristics of the excess cases.
      Methods  The number of diarrhea cases diagnosed for the first time in 16 intestinal outpatient departments providing service all the year around in Beijing from 2012 to 2019 were collected to estimate the excess number of diarrhea cases with adjusted Serfling regression model.
      Results  From 2012 to 2019, a total of 216 930 diarrhea cases were diagnosed for the first time in the 16 intestinal outpatient departments in Beijing, the age of the cases was mainly above 18 years. With adjusted Serfling regression model, 10 excess diarrhea epidemic periods were found, in which 28 135 excess cases occurred (95% CI: 13 423–42 847), accounting for 50.10% of the baseline level (95% CI: 23.90%–76.29%). The excess number of diarrhea cases diagnosed in the intestinal outpatient departments in spring, summer, autumn and winter were 2 673 (95% CI: 985–4 361), 11 564 (95% CI: 6 296–16 833), 2 570 (95% CI: 1 112–4 028) and 11 328 (95% CI: 5 030–17 626), respectively. The excess number of diarrhea cases in summer showed a decrease trend from 2012 to 2019 in Beijing ( χ2=5949.180, P<0.001), while the excess number of diarrhea cases in winter has been in increase since 2016.
      Conclusion  Summer is the peak season of diarrhea diagnosis in Beijing, but in recent years, excess number of diarrhea cases increased obviously in winter. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance for viral diarrhea in winter and adjust the corresponding prevention and control strategies.

     

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