赵青, 武洁雯, 房元圣, 杨昕娉, 梁作如, 纪瀚然, 张荣娜, 庞眀樊, 戚晓鹏. 2021年2月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(3): 204-208. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202103200133
引用本文: 赵青, 武洁雯, 房元圣, 杨昕娉, 梁作如, 纪瀚然, 张荣娜, 庞眀樊, 戚晓鹏. 2021年2月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(3): 204-208. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202103200133
Zhao Qing, Wu Jiewen, Fang Yuansheng, Yang Xinping, Liang Zuoru, Ji Hanran, Zhang Rongna, Pang Mingfan, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in February 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(3): 204-208. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202103200133
Citation: Zhao Qing, Wu Jiewen, Fang Yuansheng, Yang Xinping, Liang Zuoru, Ji Hanran, Zhang Rongna, Pang Mingfan, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in February 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(3): 204-208. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202103200133

2021年2月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in February 2021

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2021年2月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。
      方法  根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、世界卫生组织(WHO)各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”“各WHO分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。
      结果  与2021年1月相比,2021年2月全球新增确诊病例降低了43.8%,全球新增死亡病例降低了25.9%,欧洲区新增确诊和死亡病例均最多,其次是美洲区(北)和美洲区(南),均是需要重点关注的地区。全球每新增1000万确诊病例用时整体呈现增加趋势,每新增50万死亡病例用时保持不变。 我国周边十四国中需要特别关注的国家为俄罗斯。
      结论  全球COVID-19肺炎疫情仍在继续蔓延,尽管全球新增确诊病例增长率呈现整体下降趋势,但对于重点关注国家仍要进行持续监测,并及时采取适当的防控政策,完善防疫主体之间的沟通交流机制,对疫情采取及时有效的防控措施。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To assess the global epidemic of COVID-19 in February 2021 and the risk of importation.
      Methods  According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 land-bordering countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern” “countries of general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighboring countries of special concern”.
      Results  Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases decreased by 43.8% and deaths witnessed a 25.9% decline globally in February 2021. The European had the largest number of confirmed cases and deaths, followed by the Americas (North) and Americas (South), both of which need to be focused on. The time taken for every 10 million new confirmed cases globally showed an overall increasing trend, and the time taken for every 500, 000 new deaths remained unchange. Among the 14 land-bordering countries, the country that needs special attention is Russia.
      Conclusion  The global COVID-19 pandemic is still spreading. Although the global growth rate of confirmed cases is showing an overall downward trend, it is necessary to continuously monitor the countries with global concern, and improve the communication mechanism between epidemic prevention entities, take timely and effective prevention and control measures against the epidemic.

     

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