涂文校, 靳淼, 黄晓霞, 刘凤凤, 宋洋, 王富珍, 孟玲, 魏依侬, 向妮娟. 2021年4月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(4): 303-306. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202104150215
引用本文: 涂文校, 靳淼, 黄晓霞, 刘凤凤, 宋洋, 王富珍, 孟玲, 魏依侬, 向妮娟. 2021年4月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(4): 303-306. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202104150215
Tu Wenxiao, Jin Miao, Huang Xiaoxia, Liu Fengfeng, Song Yang, Wang Fuzhen, Meng Ling, Wei Yiyi, Xiang Nijuan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, April 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(4): 303-306. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202104150215
Citation: Tu Wenxiao, Jin Miao, Huang Xiaoxia, Liu Fengfeng, Song Yang, Wang Fuzhen, Meng Ling, Wei Yiyi, Xiang Nijuan. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, April 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(4): 303-306. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202104150215

2021年4月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, April 2021

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2021年4月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
      方法  根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
      结果  预计2021年4月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将逐步回归至新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情大流行前5年的平均水平。 在我国防控策略未改变的情况下,随着疫苗接种和气温回升,4月面临COVID-19境外输入及续发本地传播风险将较3月有所下降。 我国大部分省份尤其南部和东部省份手足口病将持续上升。 诺如病毒肠炎暴发疫情仍将处于较高水平。 发热伴血小板减少综合征可能高于2020年以及前5年平均水平。 流行性出血热仍处于春季小高峰、疫情水平可能类似往年同期。
      结论  特别关注COVID-19,重点关注手足口病,一般关注诺如病毒肠炎、发热伴血小板减少综合征、流行性出血热。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in April 2021.
      Methods  An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.
      Results  It is expected that public health emergency events in April 2021 would be gradually restored to the 5 years’ average level before Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The risk of importation and local transmission of COVID-19 might be lower in April than March, as the prevention and control strategy remains unchanged in China, and with accelerating vaccination and rising temperature. Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease(HFMD) will continue to increase in most provinces of China, especially in the southern and eastern provinces. The outbreak of norovirus enteritis will still be at a high level. Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome(SFTS) may be higher than the average level before 6 years. Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) is still in a small peak in spring, the epidemic level may be similar to the same period in previous years.
      Conclusion  Special attention should be paid to COVID-19. Major attention should be paid to the HFMD. General attentions should be paid to norovirus, SFTS, and HFRS.

     

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