2010－2018年河南省南阳市手足口病季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型预测

彭阳; 卢千超

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202105130262

2010－2018年河南省南阳市手足口病季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型预测

彭阳,
卢千超

Application of seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average model in predicting incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Nanyang

摘要

摘要:
目的应用时间序列分析构建河南省南阳市手足口病发病预测模型，为制定防控策略提供科学依据。
方法收集2010 — 2018年河南省南阳市手足口病月发病数据建立时间序列，应用专家建模器构建季节性差分自回归滑动平均（SARIMA）模型，对2019年发病情况进行预测，并与实际值进行比较。
结果 2010 — 2018年南阳市手足口病月发病率呈明显季节性，专家建模器构建结果显示，ARIMA（2，0，0）（0，1，1）₁₂为最优模型，平稳R²为0.827，RMSE为2.240，MAE为1.207，BIC为1.755。模型对2019年发病情况预测结果显示，预测值与实测值整体变化趋势一致，相对误差绝对值最小为0.01，最大为−6.14。
结论 SARIMA模型能够较好地拟合南阳市手足口病发病情况，并预测未来发病趋势，为防控工作提供理论依据。

Abstract:
Objective To establish the prediction model for hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Nanyang, Henan province, using time series analysis and provide the scientific evidence for the control strategies.
Methods The monthly incidence data of HFMD in Nanyang from 2010 to 2018 were collected to establish a time series. SARIMA model was constructed using expert modeler to predict the incidence of HFMD in 2019, which was compared with the observed data.
Results The monthly incidence of HFMD in Nanyang from 2010 to 2018 showed obvious seasonality. The optimal model was ARIMA(2, 0, 0)(0, 1, 1)₁₂, with R² of 0.827, RMSE of 2.240, MAE of 1.207 and BIC of 1.755. The prediction of the model for the incidence of HFMD in 2019 showed that the predicted values were consistent with the observed values. The absolute value of relative error was 0.01 at the minimum and 6.14 at the maximum.
Conclusion SARIMA model could fit the incidence of HFMD in Nanyang and predict the incidence trend in the future and provide the basis for prevention and control of HFMD.

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