纪瀚然, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 梁作如, 赵青, 房元圣, 张荣娜, 庞眀樊, 戚晓鹏. 2021年4月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(5): 406-410. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202105190278
引用本文: 纪瀚然, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 梁作如, 赵青, 房元圣, 张荣娜, 庞眀樊, 戚晓鹏. 2021年4月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(5): 406-410. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202105190278
Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Liang Zuoru, Zhao Qing, Fang Yuansheng, Zhang Rongna, Pang Mingfan, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in April 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(5): 406-410. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202105190278
Citation: Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinping, Liang Zuoru, Zhao Qing, Fang Yuansheng, Zhang Rongna, Pang Mingfan, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in April 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(5): 406-410. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202105190278

2021年4月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in April 2021

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2021年4月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。
      方法  根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。 对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“各WHO分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。
      结果  相较2021年3月,全球月新增确诊病例增加了52.88%,全球月新增死亡病例增加了28.77%。 东南亚区的新增确诊和死亡病例呈现指数性增长,应重点关注。 有多个国家4月新增确诊增长率超过了100%。 印度是我国陆地接壤十四国中特别关注国家。
      结论  进入4月后,全球COVID-19疫情加重,除非洲区外,其他各区4月新增确诊病例均有不同程度上升,其中东南亚区、西太平洋区和东地中海区的新增确诊和死亡病例增长率均较高,4月中旬后,东南亚区和西太平洋区疫情持续加重,其他各分区疫情好转。 对于全球重点关注区域和国家要持续进行监测,关注其疫情和防控政策变化,并与相关的机构建立沟通机制,及时预警。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in April 2021 and the risk of importation.
      Methods  According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”.
      Results  Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases increased by 52.88% and deaths increased by 28.77% globally in April 2021. The growth rates of newly confirmed and death cases in Southeast Asia increased exponentially, thus the region needs critical concern. In many countries, the growth rate of newly confirmed cases exceeded 100% this month. India is the country of special concern among the 14 land-boarding countries.
      Conclusion  Since April, the infections continued to rise. The number of new confirmed cases has increased to various degrees, except in Africa. The number of new confirmed and death cases in Southeast Asia, Western Pacific and Eastern Mediterranean has greatly increased. After mid-April, the situation in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific region continuously increased, and the situation in other regions improved. It is necessary to continuously monitor regions and countries with a global focus, paying attention to the changes of its epidemic situation and prevention and control policies, and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies and provide timely warnings.

     

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