庞明樊, 纪瀚然, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 梁作如, 张荣娜, 房元圣, 赵青, 戚晓鹏. 2021年8月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(9): 864-868. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202109230516
引用本文: 庞明樊, 纪瀚然, 武洁雯, 杨昕娉, 梁作如, 张荣娜, 房元圣, 赵青, 戚晓鹏. 2021年8月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(9): 864-868. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202109230516
Pang Mingfan, Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinpin, Liang Zuoru, Zhang Rongna, Fang Yuansheng, Zhao Qing, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in August 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(9): 864-868. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202109230516
Citation: Pang Mingfan, Ji Hanran, Wu Jiewen, Yang Xinpin, Liang Zuoru, Zhang Rongna, Fang Yuansheng, Zhao Qing, Qi Xiaopeng. Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in August 2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2021, 36(9): 864-868. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202109230516

2021年8月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in August 2021

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2021年8月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。
      方法  根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。 对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“各WHO分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。
      结果  与2021年7月相比,2021年8月全球新增确诊病例增长了30.2%,全球新增死亡病例增加了14.5%。 美洲区(北)、西太平洋区、东地中海区和欧洲区的疫情出现反弹,8月新增确诊和死亡病例均较7月显著增长,其中美洲区(北)和西太平洋区的增幅超过120%。 全球每新增1000万确诊病例用时呈现持续缩短的趋势,每新增50万死亡病例用时略有增加。 美国、伊朗、土耳其、法国和马来西亚为全球重点关注国家,蒙古和老挝是我国陆地接壤十四国中特别关注国家。
      结论  进入8月后,全球COVID-19疫情出现反弹,主要体现在美洲区(北)、西太平洋区、东地中海区和欧洲区,应重点关注。 全球 COVID-19 疫情发展态势严峻,对于全球重点关注国家要进行持续监测,实时调整入境管控政策,并与相关机构建立沟通机制,及时预警。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in August 2021 and the risk of importation.
      Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as 'countries of global concern', 'countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region' and 'neighbouring countries of special concern'.
      Results   Compared with July 2021, the number of global newly confirmed cases and deaths in August increased by 30.2% and 14.5%. Significant increases in the number of newly confirmed cases and death was observed in Americas (North), Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Europe. Among them, the growth rate in Americas (North) and Western Pacific exceeded 120%. Globally, there were trends that it took much less time for a 10 million case increase and more time for a 500 000 death increase. The United States, Iran, Turkey, France and Malaysia were countries with global concern. Mongolia and Laos were land-boarding countries with special concern.
      Conclusion   Since August, the COVID-19 epidemic saw a big rebound, mainly driven by Americas (North), Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Europe, which needs critical concern. The pandemic of COVID-19 is still serious in the world. It is necessary to continuously monitor the situation in countries with global concern, adjust entry control policies in time and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies for information sharing and timely warnings.

     

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