马永胜, 涂文校, 冯晔囡, 王晓琪, 张京云, 王大燕, 王霄晔, 任小凡, 向妮娟, 施国庆. 2022年7月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(7): 869-873. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202207110315
引用本文: 马永胜, 涂文校, 冯晔囡, 王晓琪, 张京云, 王大燕, 王霄晔, 任小凡, 向妮娟, 施国庆. 2022年7月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 疾病监测, 2022, 37(7): 869-873. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202207110315
Ma Yongsheng, Tu Wenxiao, Feng Yenan, Wang Xiaoqi, Zhang Jingyun, Wang Dayan, Wang Xiaoye, Ren Xiaofan, Xiang Nijuan, Shi Guoqing. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, July 2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(7): 869-873. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202207110315
Citation: Ma Yongsheng, Tu Wenxiao, Feng Yenan, Wang Xiaoqi, Zhang Jingyun, Wang Dayan, Wang Xiaoye, Ren Xiaofan, Xiang Nijuan, Shi Guoqing. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, July 2022[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2022, 37(7): 869-873. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202207110315

2022年7月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, July 2022

  • 摘要:
      目的  评估2022年7月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
      方法  根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
      结果  预计2022年7月的突发公共卫生事件报告数可能较6月略有下降,仍以传染病事件为主。 全国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情总体呈低水平波动态势,局部地区仍有小幅波动且有新增疫情省份,当前全国疫情防控形势依然严峻、复杂,仍面临本土疫情传播扩散和输入导致的本土传播风险;各地需按照国家总体要求高效做好统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展。 当前处于霍乱易于传播季节,预计7月霍乱感染概率增大。 近期南方流感活动水平远超过2019年以来同期水平,以A(H3N2)亚型为优势流行株,7月上旬后流感聚集性疫情可能会逐渐下降。 每年7—8月为高温中暑发生和死亡的高发期,预计7月将维持较高水平。
      结论  对新型冠状病毒肺炎予以特别关注,对霍乱、流感和高温中暑予以一般关注。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in July 2022.
      Methods   An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.
      Results   It is expected that the number of public health emergencies reported in July 2022 may decrease slightly from June, and infectious disease events will still be the main event. The COVID-19 epidemic across the country shows a trend of low-level fluctuations. There are still small fluctuations in some regions and new provinces with new epidemics. At present, the situation of epidemic prevention and control is still severe and complex, and it is still facing the risk of local transmission caused by the spread and import of local epidemic. It is necessary to efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development in accordance with the overall national requirements. At present, cholera is easy to spread, and the probability of cholera infection is expected to increase in July. The recent level of influenza activity in southern China has far exceeded the level of the same period since 2019. With subtype A (H3N2) as the dominant epidemic strain, the influenza pandemic may gradually decline after the first ten days of July. The high incidence period of heat stroke and death is from July to August every year, and it is expected to maintain a high level in July.
      Conclusion   Special attention should be paid to COVID-19. General attentions should be paid to Cholera, flu and heat stroke.

     

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