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褚衍茹, 张栋梁, 雷松, 张言武, 劳旭影, 顾晓敏, 王海波, 冯宏伟, 吴宪昊, 陈辰, 陈奕. 2005－2021年浙江省宁波市肾综合征出血热流行特征及时空聚集性分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(10): 1217-1222. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202212200546
引用本文: 褚衍茹, 张栋梁, 雷松, 张言武, 劳旭影, 顾晓敏, 王海波, 冯宏伟, 吴宪昊, 陈辰, 陈奕. 2005－2021年浙江省宁波市肾综合征出血热流行特征及时空聚集性分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2023, 38(10): 1217-1222. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202212200546
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Chu Yanru, Zhang Dongliang, Lei Song, Zhang Yanwu, Lao Xuying, Gu Xiaomin, Wang Haibo, Feng Hongwei, Wu Xianhao, Chen Chen, Chen Yi. Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Ningbo, Zhejiang, 2005−2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(10): 1217-1222. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202212200546
Citation: Chu Yanru, Zhang Dongliang, Lei Song, Zhang Yanwu, Lao Xuying, Gu Xiaomin, Wang Haibo, Feng Hongwei, Wu Xianhao, Chen Chen, Chen Yi. Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Ningbo, Zhejiang, 2005−2021[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(10): 1217-1222. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202212200546
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2005－2021年浙江省宁波市肾综合征出血热流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Ningbo, Zhejiang, 2005−2021

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的  探讨2005—2021年浙江省宁波市肾综合征出血热（HFRS）的流行特征和时空分布特征，为制定HFRS精准防控措施提供依据。
      方法  在中国疾病预防控制信息系统的传染病监测系统收集2005—2021年宁波市HFRS病例资料并对资料进行描述性分析；使用Geoda 1.2.0软件对HFRS发病率进行空间自相关分析；通过SaTScan 10.0软件探测病例的时空聚集性并用Arcgis 10.8软件对病例时空分布进行可视化呈现。
      结果  2005—2021年宁波市共报告1 903例HFRS病例，年均报告发病率为1.50/10万；病例分布呈现明显的季节性，4—6月和11月至次年1月为发病高峰。 病例主要集中在30～60岁人群（66.00%），以农民为主（53.91%），男女性别比为3.04∶1。 鄞州区、象山县、奉化区和宁海县是宁波市HFRS主要的高发地区，占所有病例的74.25%（1 413/1 903）。 全局空间自相关分析结果显示，2015—2018年宁波市各乡镇（街道）HFRS发病率有空间聚集性（均P <0.05）。 局部空间自相关分析显示，2015—2019年HFRS发病率每年均有热点区域（高–高）出现，但热点区域范围每年呈现动态变化。 时空扫描分析共探测到2个聚集区，一类聚集区的时间为2017年6月1日至2019年6月30日，以象山县墙头镇为中心，覆盖宁波市东南部的41个乡镇（街道）。 二类聚集区的时间为2015年6月1日至2017年6月30日，以鄞江镇为中心，覆盖3个乡镇（街道）。
      结论  宁波市HFRS疫情存在时空聚集性特征，有由东南部向西部移动的趋势，建议对重点地区和人群开展针对性防控措施，以实现HFRS的精准防控。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, from 2005 to 2021, and provide evidence for the formulation of precise prevention and control measures for HFRS.
      Methods  The incidence data of HFRS in Ningbo during 2005−2021 were collected from China National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System (NNDS) for a descriptive analysis. Software ArcGIS 10.8 was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis and visual presentation.
      Results  A total of 1903 cases of HFRS were reported in Ningbo from 2005 to 2021, with an average annual incidence rate of 1.50/100 000. The distribution of cases showed a clear seasonal pattern, with peaks from April to June and from November to January. The cases were mainly people aged 30–60 (66.00%), and the cases were mainly farmers (53.91%), the male to female ratio of the cases was 3.04∶1. Yinzhou, Xiangshan, Fenghua and Ninghai were the areas with high incidence of HFRS in Ningbo, with reported cases accounting for 74.25% (1413/1903) of the total. The result of the global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the incidence of HFRS in all towns/streets in Ningbo had spatial clustering from 2015 to 2018 (all P<0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the incidence of HFRS during 2015–2019 had hot spots (H-H), and the range of hot spots showed dynamic changes. Two clustering areas were detected by spatial-temporal clustering analysis. The class Ⅰ clustering area was in Qiangtou of Xiangshan, involving 41 sub-districts in southeast Ningbo, during June 1, 2017 - June 30, 2019. The class Ⅱ cluster area was in Yinjiang of Haishu, involving 3 sub-districts in the urban area, during June 1, 2015 - June 30, 2017.
      Conclusion  Obvious spatiotemporal clustering of HFRS cases was found in Ningbo from 2015 to 2019 and clustering areas changed dynamically from the south central part to the west in Ningbo. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control programs of HFRS in these areas.

     

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