Application of predictive model in early warning of infectious diarrhea outbreak

Objective To provide the fittest model for forecasting infectious diarrhea(other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid) in Zhejiang province and provide the alert method for disease epidemic and outbreak. Methods Mean Square Errors(MSEs) of 5 predictive analysis Methods were compared and the fittest model was chosen, and the early warning line and control chart were set up. Results MSEs of 5 Methods were 0.039, 0.156, 0.153, 0.155 and 0.160 respectively. Conclusion Moving average analysis seemed to be the fittest method in the prediction of infectious diarrhea (other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid) incidence in Zhejiang province. The setting of early warning line and control chart would facilitate the early warning of disease epidemic or outbreak.