Application of ARIMA model in prediction of syphilis

Objective To establish an ARIMA model for the prediction of monthly incidence of syphilis in Tianjin, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease. Methods The fittest ARIMA model was established by using monthly incidence data of syphilis in Tianjin from 1996 to 2008 and SPSS 15.0 statistical software. Monthly incidence data of syphilis in 2009 were used to evaluate the prediction results of the model, and the monthly incidence of syphilis in 2010 was predicted by using the model. Results The ARIMA (2,1,0), (0,1,1) model was the fittest model to predict the monthly incidence of syphilis in Tianjin, which had high precision-the predicting value was close to the true value and the true value was within the 95% confidence interval of the predicting value. Conclusion ARIMA model could be used to predict the incidence trend of syphilis and provide evidence for the development of syphilis prevention and control measures.