Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in China, September 2014

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in September 2014. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of the surveillance data and the incidence trend of public health emergencies in recent months, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would increase in September compared with August, but would not be higher than the average level at same period since 2011. The major forms would be the outbreaks of dengue fever, cholera and bacillary dysentery, as well as food poisoning. The risk of the spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists. Given China's capabilities to detect, diagnose and control diseases, the possibility of further transmission of EVD in China is low, but the case fatality of EVD is very high, it would pose serious threaten to public health in China once the importation of EVD occurs. Now China is facing the challenges of both imported dengue fever and indigenous dengue fever outbreak because the indigenous outbreaks have occurred in Guangdong and Yunnan provinces, and there is possibility of local dengue fever outbreak in Guangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang and Hainan provinces. As the new term begins in September, the risk of outbreaks of influenza, mumps, hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and varicella would increase in schools and child care settings. National Day holidays is approaching, it is necessary for health departments at all levels to make early travel health advice and strengthen the health supervision and public health emergency response preparation. Conclusion The incidence of public health emergencies would slightly increase in September compared with August. Close attention should be paid to the incidences of dengue fever, HFMD and food poisoning, as well as the risk of EVD's spread to China.