Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, January 2015

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in January 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be low in January 2015, lower than that in December 2014. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is very low. The sporadic human infection with H7N9 virus would continue to occur, and there might be reports of sporadic human infections with other avian influenza viruses. The incidence of seasonal influenza and other respiratory diseases would increase seasonally. Now it is the season of infection of norovirus and other gastroenteritis viruses, and the outbreaks might still occur in January and February. The incidence peak of scarlet fever has occurred, the case number would decline as the coming of school's winter vacation. Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would continue to occur. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in January 2015 would be low, similar to that in January in previous years. It is necessary to strengthen surveillance and preparedness for EVD, human infection of avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, norovirus infection, scarlet fever, and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.