Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, May 2015

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in May 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of public health emergencies and communicable diseases, it is predicted that the incidences of public health emergencies and related communicable diseases would be higher in May than in April, 2015. As the gradual rise of air temperature, the activities of dengue fever, brucellosis and hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) would increase, and due to the change of predominant pathogens and the influence of abnormal climate, the sudden increase of cases as well as the increase of severe cases and death cases would occur in some province. Sporadic cases of human infection with influenza A (H7N9) virus would continue to occur, and sporadic cases of human infection with other avian influenza viruses might be reported. The risks of transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) to China still exist, but the possibility of large scale spread is very low. Conclusion It is predicated that the incidences of public health emergencies and related communicable disease would be higher in May than in April. Close attention should be paid to dengue fever, brucellosis, HFMD, human infection with avian virus and the risks of EVD and MERS to China.