Predication of predominant pathogen and incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang

Objective To predict the predominant pathogen and incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Zhejiang, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Cluster analysis was conducted on the monthly proportions of the pathogens causing HFMD in Zhejiang, and transition probability matrix was established to predict HFMD pathogen proportions, then the model to estimate the incidences of HFMD was established. Results Six categories of HFMD pathogen proportion were classified, the differences in pathogen proportion, severe case number and death number among different categories were statistical significant (P0.001). Category 6 would be mostly likely to be observed in November 2014. Conclusion The probability of other enterovirus being predominant in November 2014 would be 88.9%, the probability of death would be low, but 1-3 severe cases might occur.