Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in mainland China, November 2015

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in November 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts from all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would increase in November 2015, however, the level would not be higher than the average level during the same periods in previous years. The incidence of sporadic human infections with influenza A (H7N9) and other avian influenza viruses might increase. Now it is the season of seasonal influenza, more influenza and other respiratory disease cases might occur. There is still the probability of importation of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), but the risk would be lower than in previous months. Norovirus outbreaks would be more frequent. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would increase in northern China due to coal fired heating. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would increase in China in November 2015, but the level would not exceed the levels during the same periods in previous years. It is necessary to pay close attention to human infection with avian influenza virus, and the prevention and control of MERS, norovirus infection and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning should be strengthened too.