Epidemiology of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2010－2014 and incidence prediction in 2015 in Baoji, Shaanxi

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Baoji of Shaanxi province, and provide scientific evidence for the development of effective prevention and control measures. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted by using the incidence data of HFMD in Baoji from 2010 to 2014. The incidence trend was predicted by using epidemic control chart. Results A total of 18 585 HFMD cases were reported during 2010－2014, including 162 severe cases and 10 deaths. The average annual incidence was 99.31/lakh. The annual incidence peak was during May-July. The disease mainly occurred in age group 1－4 years, especially in those aged 1 year. Most cases were caused by EV71 or Cox A16, but most severe cases were caused by EV71. Conclusion The predicted incidence of HFMD during 1st-21st weeks 2015 was similar to actual level in Baoji, According to the weekly reported case number, timely response can be made based on the early warning line and action line of epidemic control chart.