Analysis and prediction of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Panjin

Objective To underst and the epidemiologic characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD) in Panjin, Liaoning province, from 2009 to 2015 and predict the epidemic trend of HFMD,and provide evidence for the early warning, prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted by using the incidence data of HFMD in Panjin during this period and predict the incidence of HFMD in 2016 by using autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). Results A total of 7 099 cases of HFMD were reported in Panjin from 2009 to 2015 without death, the average incidence was 73.32/100 000, the highest incidence was 165.05/100 000 in 2009, the differences in annual HFMD incidence had significance (2=3 131.40,P0.05);The incidence of HFMD had obvious seasonality, the incidence peak was mainly during June-August with the cases accounting for 78.53%. The area specific differences in HFMD incidence had significance (2=1 238.17,P0.05). Most cases were children aged 1-5 years, accounting for 74.97%;The incidence was 86.87/100 000 in males and 59.40/100 000 in females, the difference had significance (2=249.35,P0.05). Children in child care settings,children outside child care settings and students were the major populations affected, which accounted for 57.49%, 36.31% and 5.37% of the total cases, respectively. The major pathogen was Cox A16, accounting for 53.15%,the difference in pathogen detection rate had significance (2=1 308.49,P0.05). The model of ARIMA (0,1,0)(1,1,0)12 was established to predict the incidence of HFMD in 2016, the predicted monthly case numbers were 1, 1, 1, 2, 9, 67, 124, 57, 29, 16, 11 and 2 respectively. Conclusion HFMD mainly affected children aged 1-5 years, the incidence peak was in July, and Cox A16 was the predominant pathogen. It was predicted that the incidence of HFMD would be slightly higher in 2016 than in 2015, therefore it is necessary to take comprehensive measures to prevent and control the spread and outbreak of HFMD.