Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China, July 2017

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in July 2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be lower in July than in June 2017 mainly due to the decline of communicable disease outbreaks in schools during summer vacation. The epidemic of dengue fever is serious in southeast Asia, and the imported cases to China would continue to increase, which might cause local transmission in southern provinces. There is the risk of importation and local transmission of Zika virus disease, Chikungunya fever and other mosquito borne diseases. The incidence of food poisoning would continue to increase, especially those occurring after rural dinner party and graduation dinner party. July-August is the period when the incidence of mushroom poisoning is high, which is the main death cause of food poisoning. The risks of waterborne, foodborne and contagious diseases as well as zoonosis might increase after flood disaster. The incidence of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus would continue to decline in July, but sporadic cases might be still detected. July is the period with high incidence of heat stroke due to high temperature and humidity. Conclusion It is predicted that less public health emergencies would occur in China in July 2017. However, it is still necessary to pay close attention to dengue fever, Zika virus disease, Chikungunya fever and other mosquito borne diseases, food poisoning and the risk of communicable diseases or public health emergencies after natural disasters; and pay attention to human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and heat stroke.