Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,March 2018

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and imported one from other countries,which might occur in the mainland of China in March 2018. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the number of public health emergencies,including involved disease case number,would be higher in March than in February in 2018. The main public health emergencies might be the outbreaks of varicella,influenza, mumps,other infectious diarrheal diseases,and hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD)occurred in schools. Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9)virus and other subtype avian influenza viruses would continue to occur. The activity of seasonal influenza would continue to decrease. The HFMD case number would begin to increase gradually in late March. It is still the high incidence season of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning. The risks of importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome from Saudi Arabia,lassa fever from Nigeria and yellow fever from Brazil to the mainland of China would be low. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would increase in the mainland of China in March 2018. Close attention should be paid to the incidence of human infection with avian influenza virus,which might cause a public health emergency. General attention should be paid to the risks of seasonal influenza,HFMD and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning. No particular attention needs to be paid to the public health emergencies occurred in foreign countries.