Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, June 2018

Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones or the imported ones from foreign countries,which might occur in the mainland of China in June 2018. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies,it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be lower in June than in May 2018. The emergencies might be mainly the communicable disease outbreaks occurred in schools,such as varicella,hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD),mumps and other infectious diarrheal diseases. The incidence of HFMD would be still high. Food poisoning events would increase,mainly caused by microbes. Food poisoning caused by poisonous flora and fauna and poisonous mushroom would increase significantly. The risk of importation of dengue fever still exists,and the indigenous transmission in high risk areas,such as Yunnan and Guangdong provinces,might occur. The incidence of infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus would be low,however,the risk of the outbreaks related with travel both at home and abroad still exists. Anthrax cases reported would continue to increase. The risks of importation of Ebola virus disease from Democratic Republic of Congo and Nipah virus infection from India to China are estimated to be low. Conclusion It is predicted the incidence of public health emergencies in the mainland of China would decrease in June 2018. Particular attention should be paid to the public health risks of HFMD and food poisoning. Close attention should be paid to dengue fever, infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus, anthrax, Ebola virus disease in Democratic Republic of Congo and Nipah virus infection in India.