Analysis on influence of air temperature on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xiantao, Hubei, 2014-2015

Objective To understand the influence of air temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD)in Xiantao of Hubei province,and establish an early warning temperature range of HFMD. Methods Air temperature surveillance data and disease surveillance data in Xianto were collected to analyze the association between air temperature and incidence of HFMD, and nonlinear distribution lag model was used to analyze the influence of air temperature on HFMD incidence. Results When the air temperature was at 15-20℃,especially at 17.33℃,the max RR was highest (1.16,95% CI:1.078-1.259)and there was a lag effect of daily average temperature on the incidence of HFMD. A lag of 5 days was observed. When air temperature was at -2-0℃,a lag of 0-2 days was observed. The RR increased. Conclusion The early warning temperature range of HFMD was 15-18℃,the RR was highest at 17.33℃. There was a lag effect of daily average temperature on the incidence of HFMD. A prediction model using air temperature parameter can be established for the early warning of HFMD,early response to possible HFMD epidemic and etiological study.