Risk assessment of public health emergency concerned in mainland China, July 2018

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones from foreign countries, which might occur in mainland of China in July 2018.

Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.

Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of infectious diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies of July 2018 would continue to decrease, mainly caused by the decreasing of chickenpox, mumps and other common infectious diseases outbreaks among students as the summer vacation is coming. However, the food poisoning and heat stroke will rise. According to the occurrence of the previous 5 years, the outbreak events of infectious diseases in July may be mainly caused by hand, foot and mouth disease, dengue fever, infectious diarrhea and brucellosis. The importation risk of dengue will continue to rise, and the risk of local transmission of dengue will also rise among those areas where aedes aegypti and aedes albopictus are endemic, particularly in the metropolises of Southern China and the areas which have points-of-entry. According to the meteorological forecast, the risk of flood will increase in the upper reaches of the Yangtze river, the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the basin of Haihe river, and there may be two or three typhoons landing on China; so disease prevention and control after flooding should be concerned in those possible flood areas. Internationally, the risks of importation of Rift Valley fever from Kenya, ebola virus disease from the Democratic Republic of Congo and measles from Brazil are low.

Conclusion It is expected that the public health emergencies in mainland of China in July 2018 will be on the normal seasonal decline. However, particular attention should be paid to the dengue fever, food poisoning and heat stroke, and close attention should be paid to the disease prevention and control after flooding. There is no special foreign public health events which should be concerned in mainland of China in July 2018.