Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, December 2018

Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in December 2018.

Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.

Results Generally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in December than in November 2018, which might be mainly attributed to the epidemics of varicella, seasonal influenza, mumps, other infectious diarrheal diseases and hand foot and mouth disease. Sporadic cases of human infection with avian influenza virus might continue to occur. The activity of seasonal influenza would be in increase. More viral diarrhea outbreaks caused by norovirus might occur, especially in schools. The epidemic of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Democratic Republic of Congo is still serious. The risk of further spread of EVD to China still exists, but the possibility of large scale spread caused by the imported cases is very low. The incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would be high.

Conclusion Close attention should be paid to human infection with avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning, and general attention should be paid to norovirus infection, and EVD in Democratic Republic of Congo.