Prevalence of hepatitis B and establishment of prediction model in Xianyang, Shaanxi, 2005–2017

ObjectiveTo analyze the prevalence of hepatitis B in Xianyang of Shaanxi province from 2005 to 2017, and establish a suitable prediction model for hepatitis B in Xianyang in 2018.

MethodsThe data of reported cases of hepatitis B in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the prevalence of hepatitis B and the time series prediction system of SAS 9.2 software was used to establish the best prediction model of hepatitis B incidence in Xianyang. The model was verified by using the incidence data of hepatitis B in Xianyang in 2018.

ResultsA total of 48 184 cases of hepatitis B were reported in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017, including 9 325 clinically diagnosed cases (19.35%) and 38 859 laboratory confirmed cases (80.65%), among these cases, 23 716 occurred in males and 24 468 occurred in females, with a sex ratio of approximately 1∶1. The cases were distributed in people aged 20–60 years. Most cases were farmers, and there was no obvious seasonality. The SAS 9.2 software time series forecasting system was used to establish the monthly incidence prediction system of hepatitis B in Xianyang. The best prediction model established for the monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Xianyang from 2005 to 2017 was Log Winters Method-Addictive model.

ConclusionThe result of the prediction indicated that he reported cases of hepatitis B would decline in Xianyang in 2018. However, it is still necessary to strengthen the hepatitis B vaccination in populations at high risk is still needed to reduce the incidence of hepatitis B.