Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in December 2021

  Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19）in December 2021 and the risk of importation.

  Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by WHO and Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”.

  Results   Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases and deaths increased by 62.41% and 2.48% globally in December 2021. The number of newly confirmed cases increased by 903.40% and deaths increased by 49.00% in the Africa region, and all other regions expect South-East Asia and Eastern Mediterranean Region showed a upward trend,especially European and North America Region. Globally, there was trend that it took much less time for a 10 million case increasing. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Italy were countries with global concern. Lebanon, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Australia, Vietnam and South Korea were the countries of general concern in each WHO sub-region.

  Conclusion   The world is in the fourth wave of COVID-19. It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global focus, adjust entry control policies in real time, and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.