Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in October 2021

  Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19） in October 2021 and the risk of importation.

  Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”.

  Results   Compared with September 2021, the number of global newly confirmed cases decreased by 18.96% and deaths decreased by 18.4% globally in October. The number of global newly confirmed cases increased by 35.6% and deaths increased by 36.1% in the European region, and all other regions showed a downward trend. Globally, there were trends that it took much more time both for a 10 million case increasing and for a 500 thousand death increasing. The United Kingdom, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Germany were countries with global concern. Chile, Jordan, and Tanzania were the countries of general concern in each WHO sub-region. Russia were neighbouring countries with special concern.

  Conclusion   Since October, the global COVID-19 epidemic situation has improved, but the epidemic situation in Europe is still aggravating, and the number of newly confirmed cases and deaths is still increasing, which should be paid special attention to, timely communicate and adjusted measures.