Evaluation of effect of ambient temperature on other infectious diarrhea incidence in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai by distributed lag non-linear model

  Objective  To evaluate the effect of ambient temperature on the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai county of Zhejiang province by distributed lag non-linear model, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of other infectious diarrhea in children.

  Methods  The relevant meteorological data and the incidence data of other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0–6 years in Ninghai from 2016 to 2020 were collected. Software SPSS 20.0 was used to analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of other infectious diarrhea, and software R 4.1.0 was used to construct a distributed lag non-linear model to explore the impact of ambient temperature on the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0−6 years in Ninghai.

  Results  The incidence of other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0–6 years in Ninghai showed obvious seasonality during 2016−2020, with the peak from December to February. Spearman analysis showed that the correlation between daily average ambient temperature and the incidence of other infectious diarrhea was strongest (r=−0.291). Distributed lag non-linear model showed that the cumulative effect on the incidence of other infectious diarrhea was greatest when the daily average ambient temperature was −5℃ (RR=16.601, 95% CI: 2.667−103.333). The incidence risk was lowest at lag 0 days (RR=0.815, 95% CI: 0.730−0.910) and the incidence risk was highest at lag 30 days (RR=1.265, 95% CI: 1.148−1.395). The ambient temperature of −5 ℃, 5 ℃ and 11.5 ℃ had long impacts on the incidence of other infectious diarrhea, and the cumulative lag days could reach 30 days, 21 days and 30 days, respectively.

  Conclusion  The daily average ambient temperature was significantly related to the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in children aged 0–6 years in Ninghai. The risk of other infectious diarrhea increased significantly at low ambient temperature and had a long lag effect. But it was not significant at high ambient temperature.