Epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis cases and incidence trend in Guiyang, 2010−2019

  Objective  To understand the epidemiological characteristics of registered pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) cases from 2010 to 2019 and predict the incidence trend from 2021 to 2022 in Guiyang, and provide evidence for the local prevention and control of pulmonary TB.

  Methods  Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the pulmonary TB incidence data in Guiyang from 2010 to 2019. The spatial kernel density map of pulmonary TB patients was drawn using ArcMap 10.2, and the GM (1, 1) model was established by MATLAB to predict the pulmonary TB incidence trend from 2021 to 2022.

  Results  From 2010 to 2019, the pulmonary TB registration rate in Guiyang showed a downward trend (trend χ²=698.560, P<0.001). The ratio of male to female of TB cases was 1.72∶1. The age of the cases ranged from 20 years to 64 years. The proportion of pulmonary TB registration rates in age groups ＞50 , ＞65 and ＞80 years showed upward trends. The positive rate of etiological test was over 50% in 2019. Most cases were farmers, accounting for 60.84%. The annual incidence peak was during March - July, and the sub incidence peak has shifted from November to September since 2013. The area distribution was uneven, and the proportion of pulmonary TB registered in Guanshanhu, Kaiyang and Nanming districts (county) showed upward trends. GM (1, 1) model predicted that the registered case numbers of pulmonary TB in Guiyang in 2021 and 2022 would be 2881.946 and 2788.933, respectively.

  Conclusion  The prevention and control of pulmonary TB in key population and key areas in Guiyang should be strengthened. The prediction effect of GM (1, 1) model is well, which is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of pulmonary TB in Guiyang.