Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in January 2022

  Objective   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19）in January 2022 and the risk of importation.

  Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighbouring countries of special concern”.

  Results  Compared with the previous month, the number of confirmed cases and deaths increased by 263.97% and 11.00% globally in January 2022. The European region had the largest number of confirmed cases and deaths. Expect Africa experienced a decline of newly confirmed cases, all other regions showed a rapid upward trend. The time taken for every 10 million new confirmed cases globally showed a shortening trend, and the time taken for every 500 000 new deaths showed an increase trend. The United States, France, India, Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain, Brazil, Germany, Argentina and Australia were countries with global concern; Mexico, Canada, Thailand, Bangladesh, Lebanon, Tunisia, Iran, Japan and the Philippines were countries with general concern in each WHO sub-region. Russia, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Mongolia were countries with special concern among the 14 neighbouring countries.

  Conclusion  The global COVID-19 pandemic is still spreading rapidly in January 2022. It is necessary to continuously monitor the countries with global concern and pay special attention to the prevention and control policies of the 14 neighbouring countries. Improve the communication mechanism among epidemic prevention entities and take timely and effective measures against the COVID-19 importation risk.