Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in September 2022

  Objectives   To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19） in September 2022 and the risk of importation.

  Methods   According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University, combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford, an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview, a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries, as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries. The assessment results for each country are expressed as “countries of global concern”, “countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region” and “neighboring countries of special concern”.

  Results  Compared with August 2022, the global monthly new confirmed cases decreased by 42.6%, and the global monthly new deaths decreased by 32.7%. In September,the largest decrease in the number of new confirmed cases was recorded in the Eastern Mediterranean region (70.6%) and the American region (South) (65.3%), with a decrease of between 8.8% and 70.6% in the remaining regions. Except for the African region (0.9%), the number of new deaths in the remaining regions decreased to varying degrees (between 6.8% and 67.0%). The biggest decline was in the eastern Mediterranean. Among them, Russia is a country with global focus, and Myanmar, Russia and India are neighboring countries of special concern in September.

  Conclusion  The global daily newly confirmed cases and deaths showed a downward trend in September, but the epidemic situation in Europe, Russia, France and other countries increased, and the newly confirmed cases showed an upward trend, which should be paid special attention to, timely communicate and adjusted measures.