Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in February 2024

Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside mainland China in February 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.

Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the Internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.

Results In February 2024, 13 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 30 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 9 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 23 high-risk events and 9 medium-risk events.

Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by Dengue fever in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Thailand, Mpox in Cambodia, Cholera in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania, Chikungunya fever in Brazil, West Nile virus in Italy. International travelers are advised to focus on dengue fever in North and South American and Asian countries and cholera, mpox and Yellow fever in African countries, chikungunya fever in South American and to pay moderate attention to the possible risk of infection posed by mpox in Cambodia and Panama, polio in Nigeria, lassa fever in Nigeria, Guyana and Libya, nipah virus disease in Bangladesh, western equine encephalitis in Argentina, and pestis in the United States.