Analysis on incidences of notifiable infectious diseases in Jingzhou, Hubei, 2005−2022

Objective To analyze the incidence trends and changes of notifiable infectious diseases in Jingzhou, Hubei province, from 2005 to 2022, and provide evidence for the formulation of prevention and control policies.

Methods The incidence data of notifiable infectious diseases and population data in Jingzhou from 2005 to 2022 were collected from Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System for an analysis based on class A, B and C and transmission routes. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate long-term trend changes by using annual percent change (APC), average annual percent change (AAPC), and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Seasonal decomposition analysis was used to evaluate the seasonality of reported cases of notifiable infectious diseases, while descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the characteristics of the incidence trends of the diseases.

Results From 2005 to 2022, a total of 37 notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Jingzhou, including 13 respiratory infectious diseases, 10 gastrointestinal infectious diseases, 6 blood and sexually transmitted infectious diseases, and 8 natural foci infectious diseases. A total of 595 949 cases of notifiable infectious diseases. Including 735 deaths, were reported, with average annual morbidity rate of 576.74/100 000, mortality rate of 0.71/100 000 and case fatality rate of 0.12%. The overall morbidity rate showed an upward trend (AAPC=2.80%, 95%CI: 0.33%−5.34%). A total of 351 218 cases of class A and B infectious diseases, including 727 deaths, were reported, with average annual morbidity rate of 339.90/100 000, and the incidence rate showed a downward trend (AAPC=−1.87%, 95%CI: −2.98%−0.74%). A total of 244 731 cases of class C infectious diseases, including 8 deaths, were reported, with average annual incidence rate of 236.84/100 000, and the morbidity rate showed an upward trend (AAPC=9.88%, 95%CI: 4.44% to 15.61%). In terms of transmission routes, the incidences of respiratory, gastrointestinal, and natural foci infectious diseases in class A and B showed downward trends, the incidences of blood and sexually transmitted infectious diseases showed no significant changes and the incidences of respiratory and digestive infectious diseases in class C infectious diseases showed upward trends. Respiratory infectious diseases were prone to occur in spring, gastrointestinal infectious diseases were prone to occur in summer and winter, and natural foci infectious diseases were prone to occur from March to August. The reported incidence was higher in men (354 467 cases, 675.17 per 100 000) than in women 241 482 cases, 475.08 per 100 000, incidence rate ratio (IRR)=1.42, 95%CI: 1.41–1.43. The age group with high incidence gradually shifted from age group ＞45 years to older age group over time. In the death cases, blood borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases caused the most deaths (431 cases), with AIDS deaths accounting for 52.79%, followed by natural foci infectious diseases (165 cases), with rabies deaths accounting for 17.96%, and respiratory infectious diseases (126 cases), with tuberculosis and deaths accounting for 9.39% and 7.21%, respectively.

Conclusion From 2005 to 2022, the incidences of class A and B infectious diseases showed declining trends, while the incidence of class C infectious diseases exhibited a rapid increase in Jingzhou. There was significant temporal and population heterogeneity in the incedences of notifiable infectious diseases, and the prevention and control of the infectious diseases is still challenging.