Epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis and application of incidence prediction model in Hinggan league of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, 2018−2022

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Hinggan league, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2018 to 2022, and provide scientific basis for the precise prevention and control of pulmonary TB in Hinggan league.

Methods The relevant data of registered pulmonary TB patients in six counties (banners) of Hinggan league from 2018 to 2022 were collected from China National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System. The incidence trend of reported pulmonary TB in the past five years was analyzed, and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was established to predict the short-term incidence.

Results From 2018 to 2022, a total of 5909 pulmonary TB cases were reported in Hinggan league, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 77.26/100 000. The reported incidence rate showed a significant downward trend (trend χ²=222.977, P<0.001) in the past five years. There were significant differences in the reported incidence rate among counties (banners) (χ²=340.103, P<0.001). The average reported incidence rate of pathogenic positive pulmonary TB was 31.93/100000, showing an upward trend (trend χ²=137.504, P<0.001). The cases mainly occurred during March-May and November-January. The male to female ratio of the cases was 2.24∶1, and the incidence rate in people aged ≥50 years was highest (120.18/100000). The cases in farmers and herdsmen accounted for the highest proportion (62.95%, 3720/5909). The ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)₁₂ model based on pulmonary TB case data during 2012−2021 showed good prediction results, the relative error was 6.14% and 95% confidence interval of the predicted value of each month covered the actual value.

Conclusion The reported incidence of pulmonary TB in Hinggan league showed a downward trend year by year, and there were significant differences among counties (banners). Men, the elderly, farmers and herdsmen were at high risk for pulmonary TB, so targeted prevention and control should be strengthened. The established seasonal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)₁₂ model can be used for the prediction of the short-term incidence of pulmonary TB in Hinggan league.