Risk assessment of global infectious disease events in January 2024

Objective To detect global infectious disease events occurring outside mainland China in January 2024 and assess the importation risk to China and international travel risk.

Methods Utilizing open-source intelligence on the internet, this study conducts event-based surveillance of priority infectious diseases and adopts the risk matrix methodology to build an indicator system by integrating disease-, country- and event-specific indicators in terms of transmission likelihood and severity of consequences in order to assess the risk of the importation and the risk of international travel.

Results In January 2024, 10 infectious diseases were detected to form events or outbreaks in 29 countries worldwide. In terms of importation risk to China, there are 7 medium-risk events; in terms of international travel risk, there are 7 high-risk events and 25 medium-risk events.

Conclusion It is recommended to pay moderate attention to the possible importation risk posed by dengue fever in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, mpox in Cambodia and Russia, polio in Indonesia, Lassa fever in Nigeria, and Zika virus disease in Thailand. International travelers are advised to focus on dengue fever in South American and Asian countries and cholera in African countries, and to pay moderate attention to the possible risk of infection posed by monkeypox in Israel, polio in Africa and Asia, Lassa fever in Nigeria, Rift valley fever in Kenya, Nipah virus disease in Bangladesh, Western equine encephalitis in Argentina, and Zika virus disease in Thailand.