Application of ARIMA model in prediction of hepatitis A incidence in Fujian province

Objective To establish the ARIMA model for the prediction of monthly incidence of hepatitis A in Fujian province. Methods The curve of monthly cases of hepatitis A in Fujian province from 2004 to 2010 collected from Disease Information Reporting System was analyzed and ARIMA model was established by using ARIMA procedure of SAS 9.0. Results The case curve was not only with a long-term descending trend but also with annual seasonality. The curve became stable and non-white noise series after 1-lag and 12-lag differences had been taken. The relative optimum fitting model was ARIMA . Conclusion Fitting a relative optimum model for hepatitis A has practical use in prediction and alert of the disease.