Feasibility of application of ARIMP model to predicate incidence of dysentery in Jiayuguan

Objective To evaluate the feasibility of the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the incidence of dysentery in Jiayuguan and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of dysentery. Methods Eviews 5.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly incidence of dysentery in Jiayuguan from January 2000 to December 2008. Then the constructed model was used to predict the monthly incidence of dysentery from January to June in 2009 and the prediction result was compared with the actual incidence. Results ARIMA (2,1,3)(1,1,1)12 fitted well, the predicated incidence was consistent with the actual incidence. Conclusion The method of time series analysis can be used to simulate the change of dysentery incidence and predict the incidence in the future in Jiayuguan.