2012－2021年全球及中国−东盟接壤国家主要传染病变化趋势分析

万旻; 张晓晨; 马师良; 李云峰; 田洁; 肖利力

doi:10.3784/jbjc.202407010386

2012－2021年全球及中国−东盟接壤国家主要传染病变化趋势分析

Incidence trends of major infectious diseases in the world and ASEAN countries bordering with China, 2012−2021

摘要

摘要:
目的了解全球及中国−东南亚国家联盟（东盟）接壤国家艾滋病病毒/艾滋病（HIV/AIDS）、结核病、登革热、疟疾等传染病流行情况及发病率变化趋势，为疾病跨境传播风险监测与评估提供依据。
方法数据来源于2021年全球疾病负担研究，采用疾病的发病数及年龄标准化发病率描述疾病流行状况，通过计算年龄标准化发病率的年估计百分比变化（EAPC）分析疾病发病率在2012－2021年的变化趋势。
结果缅甸、老挝和越南的结核病年龄标准化发病率高于全球及我国水平，但3个国家结核病的年估计百分比变化（95%CI）分别为−3.79 （−5.45～ −2.10）、−4.31 （−4.70～−3.92）和−1.76 （−2.83～ −0.69），表明疾病呈显著下降趋势。我国和越南的登革热的EAPC（95%CI）分别为12.2 （11.0～13.5）、3.41 （2.70～4.12），疾病发病呈现显著的上升趋势。
结论与我国接壤东盟国家HIV/AIDS、结核病、登革热和疟疾存在输入我国的风险，我国需要加强边境口岸地区的传染病监测工作，严防传染病输入。

Abstract:
Objective To understand the epidemic status and incidence trends of major infectious diseases, such as acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), tuberculosis(TB), dengue fever, and malaria in global and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries bordering with China, and provide evidence for the prevention of cross-border transmissions of these diseases.
Methods The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, and the case umber and age-standardized incidence of diseases were used to describe the incidences of the diseases, and the trends of the disease incidences from 2012–2021 were analyzed by calculating the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC). The risks for cross-border transmissions of infectious diseases were evaluated by comparson with the incidence in China.
Results The age-standardized incidences of TB were higher in Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam compared with China and global levels, but the EAPC for TB in the three countries was −3.79 95% condidence interval (CI): −5.45-−2.10, −4.31 (95%CI:−4.70-−3.92), and −1.76 (95%CI:−2.83-−0.69), respectively, suggesting significant downward trends in the disease incidences. The EAPC for dengue fever in China and Vietnam was 12.2 (95%CI:11.0-13.5) and 3.41 (95%CI:2.70-4.12) during 2012–2021, showing a significant upward trend in disease incidence.
Conclusion China is at risk for the importations of AIDS, TB, dengue fever and malaria from ASEAN countries. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance for infectious diseases at the border areas to prevent the disease transmission into China.

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