2012-2020年重庆市慢性支气管炎死亡病例的时空特征和影响因素——基于乡镇层级的研究

Spatiotemporal distribution of chronic bronchitis death and influencing factors in Chongqing, 2012–2020: A township-level analysis

  • 摘要:
    目的 为了研究重庆市慢性支气管炎死亡病例的时空特征和相关因素的影响,为慢性支气管炎的健康干预与科学防治提供参考。
    方法 数据来源于重庆市疾病预防控制中心,选取2012—2020年慢性支气管炎死亡患者信息,使用R 4.4.1软件计算2012—2020年慢性支气管炎死亡率,率的比较采用χ2检验,趋势分析采用线性回归模型分析。 在R 4.4.1软件中,对地图进行可视化处理,进行空间自相关分析,基于局部加权回归的季节趋势分解模型识别季节性模式。 在Python3.12软件中进行斯皮尔曼相关性检验臭氧(O3)、粒径小于等于2.5 μm颗粒物(PM2.5)、粒径小于等于10 μm颗粒物(PM10)、温度等相关因素,地理加权回归模型,利用泊松广义线性模型分析环境因素之间的交互作用对慢性支气管炎的影响。
    结果 2012—2020年,重庆市总共有127742例慢性支气管炎死亡病例,平均粗死亡率从73.81/10万下降到17.41/10万,其中男性从83.67/10万下降到20.23/10万(P<0.01),女性从63.71/10万下降到14.58/10万。 男性和女性的死亡率之间差异具有统计学意义(χ2=18.000,P<0.05)。 有季度性的变化,每年的第四季度末都出现了峰值,且在空间上是非随机分布,重庆市的东南地区风险较高。 斯皮尔曼相关性检得出PM2.5和PM10是重要影响因素,泊松广义线性模型得出PM2.5与最高气温的交互作用和O3与最高温度的交互作用显著增加风险,基于地理加权回归分析,研究发现60岁及以上人口比例和PM2.5浓度对慢性支气管炎发病具有最显著的影响;7个相关因素决定系数(R2)的值为0.65,99.52%的地区表现出统计学的显著性。
    结论 这项研究发现重庆市慢性支气管炎病例呈现下降的趋势,主要发病年龄结构是60岁及以上,发病的高峰出现在第四季度末,主要发病的地区分布在重庆市的东南地区,PM2.5和PM10对慢性支气管炎患者存在潜在影响,同时在PM10与O3正向交互作用下,也显著增加风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of chronic bronchitis (CB) mortality and related influencing factors in Chongqing, and provide evidence for health interventions and effective disease prevention.
    Methods Data were obtained from the Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, including records of CB deaths during 2012–2020. The CB mortality rates were calculated by using R 4.4.1 and χ2 test was used for rate comparison, and the temporal trends were analyzed via linear regression. Spatial visualization and spatial autocorrelation were conducted by using R 4.4.1, and seasonal pattern identification was based on Seasonal and Trend decomposition Loess. Spearman's correlation (Python 3.12) was used to evaluatethe associations with ozone (O3), particulate matter PM2.5(PM2.5), particulate matter PM10(PM10), and temperature. Geographic weighted regression and Poisson generalized linear model were used to analyze environmental interactions and spatially varying effects.
    Results From 2012 to 2020, a total of 127 742 chronic bronchitis death cases were recorded in Chongqing, with the average crude mortality rate declining from 73.81/100000 to 17.41/100000. In men, the rate decreased from 83.67/100000 to 20.23/100000 (P<0.01), and in women, the rate decreased from 63.71 /100000 to 14.58 /100000, The difference was significant (χ2=18.000, P<0.05). There was a seasonal pattern, with annual peaks consistently occurring at the end of the fourth quarter. The spatial distribution was non-random, showing higher risk in southeastern Chongqing. The Spearman correlation analysis identified PM2.5 and PM10 as significant influencing factors. Poisson generalized linear models revealed that the interactive effects of PM2.5 with maximum temperature and O3 with maximum temperature significantly increased risk. Geographic weighted regression model indicated a significant relationships with PM2.5 concentration and the proportion of population aged ≥60 years, with percentages of 41.61% and 37.56%, respectively. The R2 value for the 7 relevant factors was 0.65, with 99.52% of areas showing statistical significance.
    Conclusion This study revealed a declining trend in chronic bronchitis cases in Chongqing. The affected people were mainly those aged ≥60 years, and the incidence peak was observed at the end of the fourth quarter. Geographically, the cases were mainly distributed in southeastern Chongqing. Both PM2.5 and PM10 showed potential influence on chronic bronchitis patients. Furthermore, a synergistic interaction between PM10 and O3 significantly increased the disease risk.

     

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