2013-2021年中国居民三大类疾病死亡水平变化趋势分析

Analysis on change trends of deaths from three types of diseases in population in China, 2013–2021

  • 摘要:
    目的 分析2013-2021年中国居民三大类疾病死亡水平和变化趋势,为疾病防控提供科学依据。
    方法 利用《中国死因监测数据集(2013-2021)》共9本数据集中的死亡率和死因顺位数据,采用Excel 2019软件对数据进行整理,使用Joinpoint 5.2软件分析2013-2021年中国居民三大类疾病的粗死亡率和标化死亡率的变化趋势,计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。
    结果 2013-2021年中国居民全死因粗死亡率从644.20/10万增长到709.76/10万,标化死亡率从565.11/10万减少到464.82/10万。 2013-2021年中国居民全死因粗死亡率呈上升趋势,标化死亡率呈下降趋势(AAPC=1.15%,AAPC=−2.47%,均P<0.05);第一类疾病总人群、男性、女性居民粗死亡率及标化死亡率均呈现下降趋势(均P<0.05);第二类疾病总人群粗死亡率呈现上升趋势(AAPC=1.49%,P<0.05),标化死亡率呈现下降趋势(AAPC=−2.07%,P<0.05),男性和女性居民标化死亡率均呈下降趋势(均P<0.05);第三类疾病总人群和男性居民伤害粗死亡率和标化死亡率均呈现下降趋势(均P<0.05);女性居民伤害粗死亡率呈现上升趋势(AAPC=1.11%,P<0.05),标化死亡率呈现下降趋势(AAPC=−2.35%,P<0.05)。 2021年中国居民死因顺位前3位分别是心脏病、恶性肿瘤、脑血管病,男性居民死因第1位是恶性肿瘤,女性居民死因第1位为心脏病。 第一类疾病中,总人群蛋白质–能量营养不良粗死亡率与标化死亡率均有所上升(AAPC=11.23%,AAPC=7.69%,P<0.05)。 在第二类疾病中,总人群糖尿病粗死亡率与标化死亡率呈现上升趋势(AAPC=5.79%,AAPC=2.51%,P<0.05),男性居民糖尿病、结直肠癌粗死亡率与标化死亡率均呈上升趋势(均P<0.05)。 第三类疾病中,总人群意外跌落粗死亡率与标化死亡率呈现上升趋势(AAPC=6.89%,AAPC=2.87%,P<0.05),女性居民伤害死因顺位中意外跌落由第3位上升至第1位。
    结论 2013-2021年中国居民粗死亡率呈上升趋势,而标化死亡率呈下降趋势,慢性非传染性疾病是主要死因。 在第一类疾病死因中,需重点加强艾滋病与蛋白质–能量营养不良的预防控制;第二类疾病死因中,应重点加强对男性糖尿病和心血管疾病的预防控制和健康管理;第三类疾病死因中,应当重视预防意外跌落,进行安全和健康教育。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the change trends of deaths from three major types of diseases in population in China from 2013 to 2021, and provide evidence for disease prevention and control.
    Methods The mortality data and rank of causes of deaths from three major types of diseases collected from 9 datasets of China Cause of Death Surveillance (2013−2021) for the analyses on the crude mortality rates and the standardized mortality rates of the diseases in population in China from 2013 to 2021 by using software Excel 2019 and Joinpoint 5.2, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated.
    Results For all causes of death, the crude mortality rate increased from 644.20/100000 to 709.76/100 000; the standardized mortality rate decreased from 565.11/100000 to 464.82/100 000 in population in China from 2013 to 2021, showing an increasing trend (AAPC=1.15%, P<0.05) and a decreasing trend from 2013 to 2021 (AAPC=−2.47%, P<0.05). The crude mortality rate and the standardized mortality rate of the first type of disease in total population, men and women all showed decreasing trends (P<0.05). For the second type of disease, the crude mortality rate showed an increasing trend (AAPC=1.49%, P<0.05) and the standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend (AAPC=1.49%, AAPC=−2.07%, P<0.05) in total population, and the standardized mortality rates in both men and women all showed decreasing trends. The crude mortality rates and the standardized mortality rates of the third type disease in total population and injury in men all showed decreasing trends (both P<0.05). For injury, The injury crude mortality rate showed an increasing trend (AAPC=1.11%, P<0.05) and the injury standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend (AAPC=−2.35%, P<0.05) in women. In 2021, the top three causes of death were heart disease, malignant tumor, and cerebrovascular disease in population in China, with malignant tumor being the first cause of death in men and heart disease being the first cause of death in women. In the first type of disease, the crude and standardized mortality rates of protein-energy malnutrition in total population increased (AAPC=11.23%, AAPC=7.69%, both P<0.05). In the second type of disease, the crude and standardized mortality rates of diabetes showed increasing trends in total population (AAPC=5.79%, AAPC=2.51%, both P<0.05), and the crude and standardized mortality rates of diabetes and colorectal cancer all showed increasing trends in men (P<0.05). In the third type of disease, the crude mortality rate and the standardized mortality rate of accidental falls showed increasing trends in total population (AAPC=6.89%, AAPC=2.87%, both P<0.05), and accidental falls became the first cause of death in injury in women, which ranked 3rd previously.
    Conclusion From 2013 to 2021, the crude mortality rate of three types of diseases increased in population in China, while the standardized mortality rate decreased, with chronic non-communicable diseases being the major causes of death. In the first type of disease, close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of acquired immune deficiency syndrome and protein-energy malnutrition; in the second type of disease, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention, control and health management of diabetes and cardiovascular disease in men; and in the third type of disease, it is important to improve the prevention of unintentional falls and conduct safety and health education.

     

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