2014-2023年云南省迪庆藏族自治州水痘流行特征及时空聚集分析

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of varicella in Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan province, 2014–2023

  • 摘要:
    目的  分析2014—2023年云南省迪庆藏族自治州(迪庆州)水痘疫情流行特征,为水痘疫情防控提供理论依据。
    方法 采用描述性流行病学方法、空间自相关和时空聚类分析方法,分析迪庆州水痘流行病学特征和时空分布特征。
    结果 2014—2023年迪庆州水痘年均报告发病率105.54/10万,总体呈波动下降趋势(趋势χ2=78.167,P<0.001)。 水痘发病高峰日为每年的5月25日,流行高峰期为10月1日至1月15日,女性发病率(107.32/10万)高于男性(103.95/10万)。 年龄方面以10~15岁年龄组占比最多(24.56%),职业方面以学生占比最高(56.29%),其次为农民(26.23%)。 时空扫描分析发现2个聚集区,迪庆州北部德钦县和香格里拉市的云岭乡、升平镇、羊拉乡等10个乡镇组成的区域构成一类聚集区,聚集时间为2016—2018年。 迪庆州水痘发病率存在空间正相关性,局部自相关提示高–高聚集主要在德钦县佛山乡、云岭乡。 标准差椭圆及中心分析显示迪庆州水痘报告发病率的空间格局分布呈现西北至东南格局。 2014—2023年迪庆州水痘发病重心从地区中心逐渐向西北方向偏移,水痘发病率椭圆面积总体呈现缩小的趋势。
    结论  2014—2023年迪庆州水痘发病率总体呈下降趋势,主要集中在迪庆州西北德钦县,有必要对水痘发病聚集区进行进一步调查,以制定针对性的防控措施。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (Diqing), Yunnan Province, from 2014 to 2023 and provide theoretical evidence for the prevention and control of varicella.
    Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods, spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal clustering analysis were used to explore the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of varicella in Diqing.
    Results The average annual reported incidence of varicella was 105.54/100 000 in Diqing from 2014 to 2023, showing a fluctuating downward trend (χ2= 78.167, P<0.001). The annual incidence of varicella peaked on May 25, and the incidence peak was during trend, and the incidence rate was higher in women (107.32/100 000) than in men (103.95/100 000). In terms of age distribution, the cases in age group 10-15 years accounted for the highest proportion (24.56%), and in terms of population distribution, the cases in students accounted for the highest proportion (56.29%), followed by farmers (26.23%). Spatiotemporal scanning found that two clustering areas, and 10 townships, including Yunling, Shengping and Yangla in Deqin and Shangri-La in the northern Diqing, formed the first class clustering area from 2016 to 2018. There was a spatial correlation in the incidence of varicella in Diqing, and local autocorrelation suggested that high-high clustering was mainly in Foshan and Yunling of Deqin. Standard deviation ellipse and center analysis showed that the spatial pattern distribution of reported varicella incidence in Diqing showed a shift from the northwest to the southeast.
    Conclusion From 2014 to 2023, the incidence of varicella in Diqing showed an overall downward trend, the cases mainly occurred in the northwestern Diqing. It is necessary to further strengthen the investigation of the clustering areas of varicella for the development of targeted prevention and control measures.

     

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