2009—2024年四川省乐山市手足口病流行病学特征及时空聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hand, foot and mouth disease in Leshan, Sichuan, 2009–2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 本研究旨在分析2009—2024年四川省乐山市手足口病的流行病学特征及其时空聚集性规律,为优化防控策略提供科学依据。
    方法 通过描述性流行病学分析、全局与局部空间自相关以及回顾性时空扫描分析,系统研究乐山市手足口病的流行特征及空间分布规律。
    结果  2009—2024年乐山市累计报告手足口病40 498例,年均发病率为78.13/10万,重症病例140例,死亡病例4例。病例主要集中在1~<4岁散居儿童,男性发病显著高于女性,男女性别比为1.41∶1。2009—2019年手足口病呈现双峰季节特征(4—6月和10—12月),2020年后转为单峰模式。市中区发病率最高(136.27/10万),彝族自治县发病率较低(χ2=2 698.334,P< 0.01)。肠道病毒A组71型(EV-A71)检出率逐年下降,柯萨奇病毒A组16型(CVA16)呈隔年流行趋势,而其他肠道病毒持续流行。全局空间自相关分析显示乐山市手足口病整体上无显著聚集性,但局部空间自相关分析发现低-低、高-高和低-高聚集区,时空扫描分析显示每年均存在1个主要聚集区及1~2个次要聚集区,2009—2016年主要聚集区为峨眉山市、市中区和五通桥区,2017—2024年扩散至沙湾区、夹江县和沐川县,主要聚集时间段为6月和11月前后。
    结论 乐山市手足口病发病具有明显的季节性和局部聚集性特征。应重点关注1~<4岁散居儿童,分区域精准防控,在核心区(市中区等)强化病例管理,在扩散带(夹江县等)拦截输入,马边彝族自治县和峨边彝族自治县需加强监测与宣教。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Leshan, Sichuan province, from 2009 to 2024, and provide evidence for the improvement of HFMD prevention strategies.
    Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis, global/local spatial autocorrelation, and spatiotemporal scan statistics were employed to systematically analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution patterns of HFMD in Leshan.
    Results From 2009 to 2024, a total of 40 498 HFMD cases were reported in Leshan, with the average annual incidence of 78.13/100 000. In the cases, 140 were severe cases, including 4 deaths. The cases were mainly home-cared 1–<4 years old children, the incidence was significantly higher in males than in females (1.41∶1). Between 2009 and 2019, the incidence of HFMD showed a bimodal seasonal pattern with peaks occurring during April-June and October-December, whereas after 2020 it showed a single annual peak. Shizhongqu district had the highest incidence rate (136.27/100 000), whereas Yi autonomous counties showed markedly lower rates(χ2=2 698.334,P < 0.01). Virological surveillance demonstrated a progressive decline in the detection rate of enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), while coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) exhibited a biennial circulation pattern. Other enteroviruses maintained persistent circulation throughout the study period. Spatiotemporal analysis indicated no significant global clustering of HFMD cases in Leshan. However, local spatial autocorrelation identified distinct clustering patterns (low-low, high-high, and low-high). Spatiotemporal scanning detected 1 primary and 1-2 secondary clusters annually. The primary clustering areas shifted from Emeishan, Shizhongqu, and Wutongqiao during 2009-2016 to Shawan, Jiajiang, and Muchuan from 2017 to 2024. The annual clustering periods were consistently around June and November.
    Conclusion  The incidence of HFMD showed distinct seasonality and local spatiotemporal clustering in Leshan from 2009 to 2024. It is necessary to pay attention to home-cared 1–<4 years old children, conduct precise prevention and control, strengthen case management in the core districts (e.g., Shizhong district), intercept imported cases in the diffusion zones (e.g., Jiajiang county), and intensify surveillance and health education in Mabian Yi autonomous county and Ebian Yi autonomous county.

     

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