基于熵权-TOPSIS法的2019-2024年天津市突发公共卫生事件报告质量评价

Evaluation of the Reporting Quality of Public Health Emergencies in Tianjin from 2019 to 2024 Based on Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Method

  • 摘要:
    目的 运用熵权-TOPSIS法对天津市突发公共卫生事件报告质量进行系统评估,揭示区域差异原因,为进一步提高事件报告质量提供科学依据。
    方法  通过突发公共卫生事件管理信息系统收集2019年1月1日-2024年12月31日天津市各区上报的突发公共卫生事件及相关信息,运用熵权-TOPSIS法构建评价体系并对报告质量进行综合评价,采用留一法与敏感性分析评估排序稳定性。
    结果  时间维度事件上报时间6年年均降低2.5770小时,未分级事件占比在2020年和2022年大幅增长后有下降趋势,熵权法确定未分级事件占比为关键指标(0.2217),2024年相对接近度较2019年增长101.9648%。空间维度监测敏感值权重最高(0.2213),环城四区在监测与信息质量领先,远郊六区在应急响应更优;留一法显示,仅剔除2020或2023出现相邻1位对调;敏感性分析显示±20%扰动下,仅2023年报告时效性出发一次相邻对调。
    结论 天津市突发公共卫生事件报质量总体提升,结论对小样本年份不敏感、方法稳健,可为提升监测与信息质量及优化应急响应提出依据。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To apply the entropy-weight TOPSIS method to systematically evaluate the quality of public-health emergency reporting in Tianjin, elucidate regional differences, and provide evidence for improving reporting quality.
    Methods Data on public-health emergencies and related information reported by Tianjin’s districts from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2024 were extracted from the Public Health Emergency Management Information System. An evaluation system was constructed and comprehensive reporting quality was assessed using the entropy-weight TOPSIS method. Ranking stability was evaluated with leave-one-out analysis and sensitivity analysis. Results: Temporally, the reporting time decreased by an average of 2.5770 hours per year over six years. The proportion of unclassified events rose markedly in 2020 and 2022 and then declined. Entropy weighting identified the unclassified-event proportion as the key temporal indicator (weight 0.2217), and the relative closeness (C) in 2024 increased by 101.9648% versus 2019. Spatially, surveillance sensitivity had the highest weight (weight 0.2213); the Ring-city Four led in surveillance and information quality, while the Outer-suburban Six performed better in emergency response. leave-one-out showed that only dropping 2020 or 2023 produced a single adjacent one-rank swap. Sensitivity analysis showed that under ±20% perturbations only reporting timeliness in 2023 triggered one adjacent swap.
    Conclusion The overall quality of public-health emergency reporting in Tianjin improved. The findings are not sensitive to small-sample years and the method is robust, providing evidence to strengthen surveillance and information quality and to optimize emergency response.

     

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