2014—2023年浙江省宁波市手足口病的季节性特征分析

Seasonal characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, 2014-2023

  • 摘要:
    目的  分析浙江省宁波市手足口病发病的季节性特征,明确该地区手足口病发病的高发期,为开展手足口病疫情的早期监测和防控提供科学依据。
    方法  基于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的传染病报告信息管理系统,收集整理宁波市2014—2023年累计247 082例手足口病报告病例,结合人口数据计算该地区手足口病的发病率。在此基础上,利用季节指数法、集中度法和圆形分布法对手足口病发病的季节性特征进行系统性分析。
    结果  2014—2023年,宁波市手足口病发病呈现隔年高发的特征,年均发病率为292.70/10万。2014—2017年及2021—2022年,手足口病发病呈现明显季节性双峰分布。季节指数法结果显示,5~7月及9~10月为宁波市手足口病的高发季节。集中度M值合为0.34,表明宁波市手足口病发病具有一定的季节性。圆形分布分析结果显示,r=0.34, \overline\alpha =166.75°,S=41.06°,(Z=27 548.285>Z0.05(2.995 7),P<0.05),推算出宁波市手足口病的发病高峰日为6月18日,发病高峰期为5月10日~7月27日。
    结论  2014—2023年浙江省宁波市手足口病的发病具有一定的季节性特征,5~7月为该地区的手足口病发病高峰期。建议相关防疫部门在高发期来临前尽早落实各项手足口病防控措施,以降低疫情暴发的风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, as well as to clarify the high-incidence period, and provide a scientific basis for the early monitoring, prevention and control.
    Methods Based on the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System, a total of 247 082 cases of HFMD in Ningbo from 2014 to 2023 were collected and sorted out. The incidence rate and trend of HFMD in this area were calculated by using Ningbo’s resident population data. On this basis, the seasonal characteristics of HFMD were systematically analyzed by using the seasonal index method, concentration method and circular distribution method.
    Results The average annual incidence rate of HFMD in Ningbo was 292.70 per 100 000 population from 2014 to 2023, and the incidence rate exhibited a biennial surge pattern. The incidence of HFMD showed a distinct seasonal bimodal distribution during 2014-2017 and 2021-2022. The results of the seasonal index method showed that May to July and September to October were the high-incidence seasons. The total concentration M value was 0.34, indicating that the incidence of HFMD in Ningbo had a certain seasonality. The results of circular distribution analysis showed that r=0.34, \overline\alpha =166.75°, S=41.06° (Z=27 548.29>Z0.05 (2.995 7), P<0.05), indicating that the peak day of HFMD in Ningbo was June 18th, and the peak period was from May 10th to July 27th.
    Conclusions The incidence of HFMD in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2023 had certain seasonal characteristics, and the peak period of HFMD was from May to July. It is suggested that relevant epidemic prevention departments implement various HFMD prevention and control measures as early as possible before the high-incidence period to reduce the risk of epidemic outbreak.

     

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